Above the 40 (March 6, 2019) – Nick Widens: End of Overbought Period Exposes Precarious Stock Market

AT40 = 63.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (25th overbought day)AT200 = 41.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.7Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary The broken record in the stock market finally came to an end. The small nick in the overbought period … Read more

Above the 40 (January 11, 2019) – A Stock Market of Parallel Exhaustion and Breakouts

AT40 = 52.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (4-month high)AT200 = 22.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (4-week high)VIX = 18.2 (5-week low)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The major indices are still showing signs of exhaustion, but the sellers have yet to wrest back control … Read more

Above the 40 (December 26, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: Stock Market Delivers Major Reprieve for the Post-Trump Reversal

AT40 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #8)AT200 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 30.4 (down 15.7%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Pick your favorite catalyst or explanation. I am sure there is good news (or the absence of bad news) out … Read more

Above the 40 (June 22, 2018) – Stock Market Bears Increase the Pressure

AT40 = 63.1% ƒof stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 13.8 Short-term Trading Call: bearish Commentary In my last Above the 40 post, I described how growing global trade wars are creating widening divergences in … Read more

A Fresh Top in Cocoa

It did not take long. Two days after I identified a Bollinger Band squeeze on iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB), the technical chart pattern resolved to the downside. NIB has lost 11.9% over this time. Source: FreeStockCharts.com At current levels, NIB has confirmed a top from its 19-month high: a breakdown below the 50-day … Read more

T2108 Update (January 3, 2017) – The S&P 500 Makes Another Tentative Return to Overbought Conditions

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (September 9, 2016) – FedSpeak Crashes the Stock Market’s Complacency Party – For Now

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (August 26, 2016) – Bracing Time: Widening Bearish Divergence As Volatility Finds Support

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (August 5, 2016) – A Bullish Breakout that Flirts With Danger

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (May 20, 2016) – Chopfest

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more