The S&P 500 Broke Down Just As the Stock Market Hit Extremes – Above the 40 (May 12, 2021)

AT40 (T2108) plunged from 59.7% to 38.1% in 3 days for its lowest close in 6 months.

Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) finally broke down and succumbed to the selling pressure building up in the stock market. A “surprise” surge in inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) delivered the headline catalyst for a day of broad-based selling. Given market breadth was already in the process of narrowing, … Read more

A Bullish Kind of Bearish Call on the Stock Market

The stock market has enjoyed overbought trading conditions for the last 13 trading days and 14 of the last 15. I consider the stock market overbought when AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), trades above 70%. Overbought periods are times of mixed feelings. The stock market tends … Read more

Bearish Indices and Bullish Reopen Stocks Create Abrupt Rotation – Above the 40 (November 9, 2020)

AT200 (T2107) surged 10 percentage points to close near a 3-year high and a breakout above the post financial crisis downtrend.

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 67.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (high of 75.1%) AT200 = 63.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 25.8 (as low as 22.4) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary … Read more

A Stock Market Almost Oversold On Broad-Based 50DMA Breakdowns

AT40 (T2108) gapped down from 40% and closed at 25.3%.

The week started with key support at the 50-day moving average (DMA) giving way for the S&P 500 (SPY). The meltdown started into a crescendo today with 50DMA breakdowns across indices. The selling was swift enough to drive my favorite technical indicator close to oversold levels. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their … Read more

An Indicator of Stock Market Breadth Nears An Important Milestone

The stock market convincingly followed through on last week’s bullish divergence that indicated strengthening stock market breadth. At the time of the bullish divergence, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), powered higher even as the S&P 500 (SPY) lost 1.0%. The index also suffered a 50DMA breakdown. … Read more

The Stock Market’s Garden Grows More Weeds In Sell-Off – Above the 40 (September 8, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 42.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2-month low)AT200 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2 1/2 week low)VIX = 31.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary The swift stock market sell-off took a fresh turn for the worse. AT200 … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Faces Down the Stimulus Stalemate – Above the 40 (August 14, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 76.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (6th day overbought)AT200 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 22.1Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary While the politicians in Washington D.C. play a game of chicken with the economy, the … Read more

Stock Market Snaps Out of Bearish Divergence – Above the 40 (July 15, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 58.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 30.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.8Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary I anticipated a shallow sell-off for a downward resolution to the bearish divergence in the stock market. However, … Read more

A Two-Speed Stock Market Downshifts Into A Bearish Divergence – Above the 40 (July 10, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 43.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit a 2 1/2 – month low the previous day at 34.9%)AT200 = 26.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A strange and two-speed market got even … Read more

Overbought Period Ends With A Trapped S&P 500 – Above the 40 (June 19, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 68.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 5 days overbought, over 70%)AT200 = 25.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 35.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary When the NBA suspended/cancelled its basketball season in March, I wrote about how … Read more