An Appreciating Yen Is the Rally’s Second Strike – The Market Breadth

first strike against the rally

Stock Market Commentary Technical underpinnings are changing fast in the stock market. The first strike against the rally came in the form of initial struggles to break into overbought territory. A second strike has now emerged in the form of an appreciating Japanese yen (FXY). To the extent carry trades – borrowing cheap yen to … Read more

Overbought Trading Ends with Japan’s Monetary Drama Carving Topping Patterns In Stocks – The Market Breadth

topping pattern (Credit: Don't fall off the cliff by blmurch on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve’s latest pronouncement on monetary policy was supposed to provide the drama of the week. However, the stock market yawned and resumed the buying of the summer of love at the open of trading the next day. Enter the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to provide the real drama. The fireworks … Read more

Key Endorsements for the 2023 Run-Up In Stocks – The Market Breadth

endorsements (Credit: Air salute by The U.S. Army on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: The summer of loving stocks may have begun. In a list of debt ceiling winners and losers, Vox failed to list the stock market as one of the biggest winners. The lingering and residual angst accompanying the manufactured drama of the debt ceiling released its hold on the market’s bias to go … Read more

New Crypto Drama Escorts Abrupt End of Bullish Run for Stocks – The Market Breadth

abrupt end (Credit: Crash by JessicaSarahS on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: The last bullish run in the stock market came to an abrupt end. The day started on a positive note, but trading went awry after a mix of relatively unsurprising economic news releases and Fedspeak. News that the Justice Department would announce an international enforcement action against a cryptocurrency entity seemed to … Read more

Overbought But Making A Bullish Case With Key Breakouts – The Market Breadth

bullish case (Credit: LEGO Collectible Minifigures Series 9 : Judge by wiredforlego on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: Last week was a bullish week for the stock market. Key breakouts on the major indices made a bullish case for stocks as buying strength conjured up overbought trading conditions. Yet another post-CPI celebration sealed the deal on a bullish convergence leading into the report on inflation. While it is tempting to … Read more

The Bulls Converge on the December CPI Report – The Market Breadth

bulls converge (Credit: Bulls by Creative Ignition from Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: After celebrating slightly weak economic data last Friday, stock market buyers and bulls have trained their eyes on the December CPI (Consumer Price Index) report. The bullish trading action for the last two days suggests market participants are expecting weaker than expected inflation data. In turn, such a report would strengthen hopes … Read more

Soft Economic News Sparks Late New Year’s Cheer – The Market Breadth

new years cheer (Credit: Happy New Year! Cheers! by włodi from Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: It took a mixed jobs report and soft economic data to spark late New Year’s cheer in the stock market. The December jobs report refreshed the message of a strong labor market whose unemployment rate has stayed between 3.5% and 3.7% the entire time the Federal Reserve has hiked interest rates. Yet, … Read more

The Fed Said No in 2022 – The Market Breadth

Fed Says No (Credit: Brookings Webinar)

Stock Market Commentary: The Fed said “no” in 2022. The Fed said no to inflation, no to easy money, no to the housing market, and pointedly said no to a stock market pleading for relief from an accelerated cycle for normalizing monetary policy. Instead of the typical routine rushing to the rescue of a plunging … Read more

A Path of Least Resistance Offers A Reprieve – The Market Breadth

path of least resistance (Credit: The path of least resistance by Eduardo Mueses on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: Yesterday’s surge in the Japanese yen (FXY) may have exhausted enough sellers to clear the path for some holiday cheer in the stock market. Suddenly, the market seemed to transition from the heavy burdens of a stubbornly hawkish Fed to the alluring hopes from a lack of (scheduled) negative catalysts for the … Read more

Santa Rally Denied: The Fed Stays Naughty – The Market Breadth

fed stays naughty (Credit: you're a mean one, mr. grinch... by Wicked Little Cake Company on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: A week ago, I cautioned that “the tenuous positioning is further weakened by a breakout of volatility and significant deterioration in the market breadth indicators.” The November CPI report showed the slightest surprise possible and faked out the stock market on the way to another hawkish statement from the Federal Reserve on … Read more