Stocks Hold A Tenuous Grip On Overbought Trading Conditions – Above the 40 (January 15, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary A liquidity-driven bounce off support took a small breather last week. The major stock market indices ended the week with a small loss. On the way there, overbought trading conditions ended for a day. As the major indices languished, the stock market dipped in and out of overbought conditions on an intraday … Read more

End of Overbought Period for Stocks Ushers In the Bear – Above the 40 (January 4, 2020)

Stock Market Commentary The weakening overbought conditions finally gave way to a full breakdown. The abrupt end of the overbought period ushers in the bear. Ironically, trading started well with the S&P 500 (SPY) gapping slightly higher at the open. The selling pressure started after the open and did not relent until lunchtime on the … Read more

Bearish Indices and Bullish Reopen Stocks Create Abrupt Rotation – Above the 40 (November 9, 2020)

AT200 (T2107) surged 10 percentage points to close near a 3-year high and a breakout above the post financial crisis downtrend.

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 67.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (high of 75.1%) AT200 = 63.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 25.8 (as low as 22.4) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary … Read more

The Stock Market Voted to Rally After October Swoon – Above the 40 (November 6, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 53.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (8-month high) VIX = 24.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Based on AP results, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris declared victory in the U.S. Presidential … Read more

A Pause in the Frenzy Ends Stock Market Bid for A Parabolic Run-Up – Above the 40 (September 4, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (intraday low of 45.9% which was solid support in second half of July and early August)AT200 = 46.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 30.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary I thought … Read more

A $2.3 Trillion End to An Extreme Oversold Period in the Stock Market – Above the 40 (April 10, 2020)

AT40 = 24.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 31-day oversold period)AT200 = 10.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.7Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary “The Federal Reserve on Thursday took additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support … Read more

A Sharp Market Rebound, Too Many Stocks Left Behind – Above the 40 (February 7, 2020)

AT40 = 47.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 15.5Short-term Trading Call: bearish (from cautiously bearish) Stock Market Commentary The major indices managed to swing to all-time highs last week, but I still see signs of a … Read more

Still No (Trade War) Resolution In the Stock Market – Above the 40 (October 18, 2019)

AT40 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 49.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.3Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary No Resolution The stock market did little to resolve my lingering skepticism over the meaningfulness of the “Phase One” or partial Trade … Read more

Two Straight Fades Equals A Toppy Stock Market – Above the 40 (June 11, 2019)

AT40 = 39.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 45.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (downgrade from cautiously bullish) Stock Market Commentary The last 5 or 6 trading days have been good for bulls and buyers. It was fun while … Read more