Historic Oversold Conditions Stretch Into A Bear Market – Above the 40 (March 12, 2020)

AT40 = 1.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (12th oversold day)AT200 = 4.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 75.5 (just short of financial crisis all-time high of 90)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary When I said a persistently elevated volatility index (VIX) warned us … Read more

The 401K Stock Market Chokes On A Powell and Trade War Sandwich – Above the 40 (August 23, 2019)

AT40 = 28.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (see caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Presidential Decrees “Q    Six hundred and twenty-three points — that’s what the Dow was down today … Read more

Above the 40 (December 26, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: Stock Market Delivers Major Reprieve for the Post-Trump Reversal

AT40 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #8)AT200 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 30.4 (down 15.7%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Pick your favorite catalyst or explanation. I am sure there is good news (or the absence of bad news) out … Read more

Above the 40 (December 24, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: An Epic Reversal, Historic Depths, and an End to Hubris

AT40 = 3.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #7, 10-year low!)AT200 = 8.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (9 1/2- year low!)VIX = 36.1 (1-day gain of 20.0%, 10 1/2- month high)Short-term Trading Call: bullish (oh so many caveats below!) Commentary Although it’s been … Read more

Above the 40 (December 14, 2018) – A Bear-Burdened Stock Market Dropped to Oversold and Passed A Trade-Positive Tweet

AT40 = 19.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day oversold)AT200 = 20.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (34-month low)VIX = 21.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryThe stock market is oversold again as a bearish divergence to start the week came to its “logical conclusion.” AT40 (T2108), … Read more

Above the 40 (December 7, 2018) – Right Back Where the Stock Market Started, But Worse

AT40 = 25.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 23.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just off a 32-month low)VIX = 23.2 (as high as 24.7)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryI am surprised the stock market has yet to close in oversold conditions. AT40 (T2108), the … Read more

Above the 40 (November 30, 2018) – Market Sentiment Quickly Transforms: Enter the “Cramer Bottom”

AT40 = 44.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 30.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just above a 32-month low) VIX = 18.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week was a week where the stock market seemed to force its way into the endzone … Read more

Above the 40 (May 30, 2018) – A Manic Stock Market Instantly Forgets Its Italian Angst

AT40 = 66.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a near 4-month high) VIX = 14.9 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Oh the hazards of changing short-term trading calls in this churning market! Reluctantly, I switched my short-term trading … Read more

Chart Review: Stock Market Fades Weigh Heavily On ACIA, MTCH, UPS

The S&P 500 (SPY) opened the trading day strong but spent the rest of the day fading to a much smaller gain. (The percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), T2108 (AT40), ended the day with an ominous loss that leaves it hanging below the 70% overbought threshold). This near day-long … Read more

A Thematic Trump Trade Comes To An End

One by one Trump Trades have unwound and completely reversed all their gains (or losses) since the U.S. Presidential election last November. I find the end of this particular Trump Trade particularly thematic. On June 21, 2017, the VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) completed a full reversal of its gain since the election of Donald … Read more