Stock Market Hits Overbought with A Bullish Divergence – Above the 40 (August 7, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 72.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day overbought)AT200 = 42.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 22.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The last overbought period ended in June. The volatility index (VIX) did not drop much … Read more

Stocks Unwind Ahead of Key Stimulus Decisions and Earnings – Above the 40 (July 24, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 53.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 33.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 25.8Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), barely budged all week … Read more

Australian Dollar: A Fading Pandemic Supports A V-Shaped Recovery

“Other scenarios for the recovery phase can readily be envisaged. Given the relatively rapid decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases in Australia, it is possible to contemplate an upside scenario where most domestic restrictions on activity are relaxed a little sooner and the economy recovers somewhat faster than in the baseline scenario. The greater … Read more

Overbought Holding Pattern for the Stock Market – Above the 40 (May 22, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 73.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (overbought 4 of last 5 trading days)AT200 = 20.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 28.2Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market had a promising start with a large gap up to … Read more

Overbought Trading Conditions Come to A Swift and Ominous End – Above the 40 (May 1, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 68.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ending 2 days overbought)AT200 = 12.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 37.2Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve’s last statement on monetary policy may go down as the short-term peak in … Read more

An Ugly Weekly Gain for An Extremely Oversold Stock Market – Above the 40 (March 6, 2020)

AT40 = 9.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (8th oversold day)AT200 = 23.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.9Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The Shake and Bake bottom barely held as support last week. It was a week of dramatic ups and downs … Read more

A Failed Healing: Stock Market Further Confirms Topping Patterns – Above the 40 (January 31, 2020)

AT40 = 38.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week, I switched from neutral for the first time in, I believe, months. I downgraded to “cautiously bearish” because … Read more

Resilience Cracks: Market’s Bearish Divergence Ends In Topping Pattern – Above the 40 (January 24, 2020)

AT40 = 52.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 58.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market finally pushed into overbought territory on Thursday, January 16th. The breakout quickly turned into a bust with AT40 (T2108), … Read more

Fed Waffling and Trade War Expansion Reject Market from Overbought – Above the 40 (August 1, 2019)

The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 3.1% for the week. Buyers just barely pushed the index off its intraday low to on Friday to close above 50DMA support.

AT40 = 41.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.6 (high of 20.1)Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A Pause of Recognition I am writing about financial markets at a time when there is renewed pain … Read more

Iron Ore Related Trades Are Looking Toppy All Over Again

The threat of Chinese resistance to sky high iron prices was just enough to put a halt to a parabolic run-up in prices. After a sharp drop, iron ore prices quickly rebounded and have remained relatively flat for about two weeks. The stocks of related iron-ore companies turned around after an initial sharp sell-off. Last … Read more