Bulls Explode Out of Oversold Trading Conditions – The Market Breadth

bulls explode out of oversold trading conditions

The bear market intrusion to the oversold period gave way to an explosion of bullish trading action this week. The maximum drawdown of October for the S&P 500 (SPY) was 4.0% well above the average for the month. This extreme move provided the perfect setup for the sharpness of the current oversold bounce. The rubber … Read more

Ugly, Breaking Down, but Oversold – The Market Breadth

oversold, ugly and breaking down (Credit: Duet AI)

Stock Market Commentary At the end of September, I asked skeptically whether an oversold bounce could prevent an October swoon. As I suspected at the time, the answer turned out to be no. The market-moving headlines for October have included weighty, tragic, and alarming news making for a demotivating trading environment. An oversold bounce earlier … Read more

Tech Stocks Help Press the Limits of A Sentiment Shift – The Market Breadth

press the limits (Credit: Men Pushing Loaded Truck - Phulbagan - Kolkata 20180223161038 by Biswarup Ganguly on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary Jackson Hole did not provide the market moving spark that I expected. Instead, soft economic news delivered the decisive interpretation of future monetary policy required to provide a fresh catalyst for stocks. The bullish spark caught me flat-footed as I was leaning into imminent oversold trading conditions. Fortunately, the sentiment shift was … Read more

Bad News Is the Good News That Flips Bears to Bulls – The Market Breadth

bad news is good news (Credit: Yi Chen, The Skeptical Chihuahua, Taipei, on Flickr)

Introduction I recorded a quick video to summarize my thoughts on today’s flip from bearish to bullish sentiment thanks to a bad news is good news kind of day. You can watch the video or read the transcript below curated, corrected, and organized by ChatGPT4 and then edited further by me. I am using this … Read more

Overbought Conditions Slip Into An Apple Topping – The Market Breadth

apple topping (Credit: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2021-11-26_18_02_07_An_apple_pie_with_one_slice_removed_in_the_Dulles_section_of_Sterling,_Loudoun_County,_Virginia.jpg Famartin https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0 CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Stock Market Commentary A week ago, buyers did their best to push against topping stock indices by restarting overbought conditions. That overbought period lasted just 3 days as a Fitch downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt freshly cooled the summer of loving stocks. The resulting selling confirmed topping conditions and greased the skids of the stock … Read more

Now Overbought, the Summer of Loving Stocks Stares Down the Fed – The Market Breadth

stares down (Credit: Animal Kingdom - The Stare Down by Jeff Krause Photography on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary On Thursday, good economic news scared Wall Street yet again. Initial jobless claims came in well below “expectations” and set off a cascade of reactions. Interest rates shot up and the stock market dropped down. The stubborn strength of the labor market allows the Federal Reserve to stay hawkish and keep its … Read more

Renaissance IPO ETF A Less Volatile Way to Speculate Than ARKK

speculate (Credit: Booby Stare-Down by Scott Ableman on Flickr)

Almost a year ago, I claimed that investing in ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) was little different than speculating on initial public offerings in the Renaissance IPO ETF (IPO). I was both right and wrong. On the way down, IPO far out-performed ARKK in 2021 and 2022. However, ARKK has benefited more than IPO in this … Read more

Bulls Fail Again at the Overbought Threshold – The Market Breadth

overbought threshold (Credit: Frustration by Leo Laporte on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary The summer of loving stocks is staring down its second major test just two weeks after its first major test. Like the first test, the latest test is happening in the wake of the stock market’s failure to break through the overbought threshold on market breadth. Unlike the first test, the important … Read more

Key Endorsements for the 2023 Run-Up In Stocks – The Market Breadth

endorsements (Credit: Air salute by The U.S. Army on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: The summer of loving stocks may have begun. In a list of debt ceiling winners and losers, Vox failed to list the stock market as one of the biggest winners. The lingering and residual angst accompanying the manufactured drama of the debt ceiling released its hold on the market’s bias to go … Read more

Wake Me Once the Market’s Sleepwalking Ends – The Market Breadth

sleepwalking (Credit: Photocapy on Flickr)

Stock Market Commentary: The no worries stock market is sleepwalking its way through April. The major indices are stuck in tight ranges near or at key technical resistance and support levels. Yet, market breadth remains relatively low as many of the big market leaders hold up the tent. Meandering economic data induces some of this … Read more