An Overbought Stock Market Faces Down the Stimulus Stalemate – Above the 40 (August 14, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 76.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (6th day overbought)AT200 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 22.1Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary While the politicians in Washington D.C. play a game of chicken with the economy, the … Read more

Stocks Wind Back Up – Above the 40 (July 31, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 35.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 24.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Major League Baseball (MLB) may be forced to wind back down, but stocks look like they are winding … Read more

Bottoming U.S. Dollar Ends Bargain Shopping in Mexican peso, South African rand

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) continues to pivot around its 200-day moving average (DMA). Last week, the U.S. dollar bounced before retesting the lows from March. The U.S. dollar now looks ready to challenge its 200DMA as resistance; it will likely complete another cycle by rallying at least to the previous highs above the 200DMA. … Read more

Emerging Currencies: Turkish Lira, South African Rand, Mexican Peso

When a financial market gets expensive, traders and investors start broadening their search for low-price opportunities. As an overbought U.S. stock market hits the late stages of an impressive rebound from March’s crash, its stock market looks expensive. Meanwhile, “emerging market” currencies like the Turkish lira, South African rand, and the Mexican have barely started … Read more

Cocoa: A Bear Market in Prices Brings Fresh Opportunity

Cocoa prices have plunged along with the pandemic-driven crash in global financial markets. The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN (NIB) reached a closing peak on February 13th just ahead of the global pandemic crisis. Since then, NIB is down 23.8%, a bear market in cocoa. Per my buy-the-dip strategy in NIB, this is … Read more

Suddenly Oversold: Stock Market Extremes Continue – Above the 40 (February 25, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) bounced perfectly off the oversold threshold and closed at 21.1%

AT40 = 21.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Synchronized breakdowns below the 50-day moving average (DMA) looked like an extreme day of selling. The follow-up was even more spectacular. … Read more

A Failed Healing: Stock Market Further Confirms Topping Patterns – Above the 40 (January 31, 2020)

AT40 = 38.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week, I switched from neutral for the first time in, I believe, months. I downgraded to “cautiously bearish” because … Read more

A Resilient Stock Market Finally Punches Into Overbought Territory – Above the 40 (January 16, 2020)

AT40 = 71.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (overbought day #1) AT200 = 63.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (11-month high) VIX = 12.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Whispers of bearish divergences are finally over. I did not think overbought conditions would happen anytime … Read more

Global X Nigeria Index ETF: Bargain Shoppers Pay A Visit

I have been waiting since September, 2018 for the next opportunity to buy back into Nigeria through the Global X Nigeria Index ETF (NGE). The moment for me to buy is finally here. NGE has printed all the encouraging signs of a tradeable bottom: A double bottom: August to October, 2019 at the all-time lows. … Read more

Forex Critical: A Sharp Rally Ends for the South African Rand

It was just two weeks ago when I pointed out an important technical change in the U.S. dollar against the South African rand (USD/ZAR). The USD/ZAR currency pair proceeded to decline nearly straight down until it reached toward the July lows. Based on the strong rebound underway, I am assuming the rally in the rand … Read more