The Spring Selling Season Extended Key Downtrends – Housing Market Review (July 3, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary The housing data for April and now May confirm that the housing market had a kind of false start to the Spring selling season. Normalization continues to pressure short-term trends. Housing starts, new home sales, existing home sales, and home builder sentiment are in key downtrends. These measures are now … Read more

Normalization Places Fresh Pressures on the Spring Selling Season – Housing Market Review (May, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary The Spring selling season looked like it started strong for new home sales. The data for April reveal a story evolving differently. Absolute inventories rose for both existing and new homes and yet sales declined. Housing starts also suffered a setback. Median prices of homes soared, especially for new homes, … Read more

A Strong Start to the Spring Selling Season for New Homes – Housing Market Review (April, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary In March, home builder stocks pushed through softening housing data thanks in large part to builder-specific catalysts. In April, a series of strong earnings reports and a healthy rebound in the new homes market combined to propel most housing-related stocks higher still. The contrast between existing and new homes stood … Read more

Housing Activity Continues to Normalize Back to Annual Sales Trends – Housing Market Review (January, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary “…the level of housing activity is at its highest level since before the global financial crisis in some measure. So we’ve had a very strong rebound in housing. Some of the tightness in housing markets — which has led to the significant price increases this year — we think is … Read more

Housing Stocks In Limbo Amid New Signs of Market Normalization – Housing Market Review (December, 2020)

Housing Market Intro and Summary In recent months a divergence in the housing market emerged between rangebound home builder stocks and strong housing data. In October, new home sales recorded a third straight month at the 1 million mark. Since new home sales hit an August peak, the stocks of home builders have also largely … Read more

An Extended Overbought Rally Moves Into Historic Territory (Above the 40) – December 18, 2020

Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve signaled an incremental improvement in its economic outlook by making an allowance for limited stock repurchases and dividends by the country’s top financial institutions. As a result, bank stocks apparently soared in after hours trading. That fresh rally in financials should extend to a positive open on Monday and … Read more

A Pause in the Frenzy Ends Stock Market Bid for A Parabolic Run-Up – Above the 40 (September 4, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (intraday low of 45.9% which was solid support in second half of July and early August)AT200 = 46.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 30.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary I thought … Read more

Latest Housing Starts, Construction Employment Undermine Strong Q1 GDP

U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2020 (advanced estimate) plunged by 4.8% as the coronavirus pandemic put the economy on lockdown. The following categories made positive contributions to GDP in ascending order of their contribution to the percentage change: Housing and utilities: .08% Change in farm inventories: 0.10% Government consumption expenditures … Read more

Housing Downturn: Optimism Races Ahead of the Data – Housing Market Review (April, 2020)

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (ITB) gained 4.2% and closed at a 2-month high.

Housing Market Intro and Summary Something surprising is happening in the middle of the current downturn in the housing market: buyers keep coming and home builders are staying resilient and resolute. A series of earnings reports from publicly traded home builders do not reflect the historic plunge in builder sentiment from April (see below). The … Read more

The Walls Cave In On Housing-Related Stocks

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) crashed again, this time with a 20.2% loss. ITB slices right through the 2018 low and closed at a 3 1/2 year low.

It seems every week I need to generate new superlatives to describe the epic collapse in the stock market. For the housing-related stocks, forget animal spirits getting trampled. This time around the walls have all caved in on the sector. Today’s third crash during this sell-off in the stock market featured a complete collapse in … Read more