Turkish Central Bank Hiked Policy Rate, But Too Late for the Turkish Lira?

The monthly chart of the U.S. dollar versus Turkish lira (USD/TRY) shows a near relentless and massive devaluation.

The Turkish lira suffered another run of sustained weakness this month. Weakness in the Turkish lira drove USD/TRY to new all-time highs. On Thursday, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) tried yet again to stop the bleeding. The Turkish Central Bank hiked its policy rate an entire 200 basis points from 8.25% … Read more

The Volatility Index During Oversold Periods In the Stock Market

When the stock market last flipped to oversold trading conditions, I expected at least one more spike in the volatility index (VIX) before oversold trading ended. I define oversold as a period of trading in the stock market when AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), closes below … Read more

An Oversold Stock Market With Plenty of Downside Risk – Above the 40 (September 23, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 19.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold)AT200 = 36.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 28.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary On Monday I switched to a neutral short-term trading call to get mentally ready for a major change … Read more

Stock Market Gap-Downs Send Traders Back to High Tech Playbook – Above the 40 (September 21, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 28.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs). (traded as low as 24.8%)AT200 = 40.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 27.8 (traded as high as 31.1)Short-term Trading Call: neutral (changed from cautiously bearish) Stock Market Commentary For a brief moment the entire … Read more

A Tech Stock Breakdown While Rest of Market Yawns – Above the 40 (September 18, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 43.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 44.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 25.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Tech stocks led the way up, and now they are leading the way down. The top 1% of the … Read more

Stock Market Extremes: Summer vs Post-Summer Trading

This blog takes a particular interest in studying and learning from stock market extremes. This year, 2020, is full of stock market extremes with the summer and the first day of post-summer trading delivering their own extremes. Summer vs Post-Summer Performances and Stock Market Extremes Measuring summer as the first trading day of June to … Read more

Tech Fertilizes the Weeds in the Stock Market – Above the 40 (September 11, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2-month low)AT200 = 43.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2 1/2 week low)VIX = 31.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary The weeds in the stock market thickened last week. Tech stocks fertilized the … Read more

How to Buy Stocks Ahead of A Bursting Housing Bubble

Chasing bubbles is a dangerous game. Chasing a housing bubble is barely a game. The Case for a Housing Bubble On CNBC’s Fast Money, Tim Seymour led a segment called the “Mother of All Housing Bubbles.” I expected Seymour to make the case for shorting housing-related stocks. As a perma-bull on the housing market, I … Read more

The Stock Market’s Garden Grows More Weeds In Sell-Off – Above the 40 (September 8, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 42.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2-month low)AT200 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2 1/2 week low)VIX = 31.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary The swift stock market sell-off took a fresh turn for the worse. AT200 … Read more

Camping World Holdings: An RV Full of CEO Stock Purchases

The CEO Stock Purchases Camping World Holdings (CWH) is America’s “largest retailer of RVs, RV accessories and RV-related services” according to the company’s about page. CEO Marcus Lemonis is on a major buying campaign to load up HIS RV with company stock. These CEO stock purchases are large and frequent. As a result, I want … Read more