ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
Stock Market Commentary: Despite recent bouts of trading in or like a bear market, market breadth has somehow managed to avoid closing in oversold conditions. In fact, the last “official” oversold period was 518 trading days ago. Yet, since the NASDAQ topped out in November, market breadth has dropped into and out of oversold on … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market continued its streak of trickiness. Buyers and sellers played a fierce bear-bull battle starting with one of the biggest fake-out one-day rallies since last September 2nd’s near parabolic run-up. Fresh money flowed into funds to start the month of March to for gains of 2.4% on the S&P 500 … Read more
“Other scenarios for the recovery phase can readily be envisaged. Given the relatively rapid decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases in Australia, it is possible to contemplate an upside scenario where most domestic restrictions on activity are relaxed a little sooner and the economy recovers somewhat faster than in the baseline scenario. The greater … Read more
The threat of Chinese resistance to sky high iron prices was just enough to put a halt to a parabolic run-up in prices. After a sharp drop, iron ore prices quickly rebounded and have remained relatively flat for about two weeks. The stocks of related iron-ore companies turned around after an initial sharp sell-off. Last … Read more
Iron Ore Resistance Iron ore prices have been on a tear this year, and China’s steel mills are not going to take it anymore. According to Reuters: “…eight steel mills will create an investigation group, led by Baowu and assisted by the others, to look into the pricing methodology of imported iron ore, to coordinate … Read more
In the background of the growing euphoria in the U.S. over imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the growing weight of the steady descent of the economy in the eurozone. European Weakness The week started with the stock market’s first opportunity to respond to the declared truce in the trade war between the … Read more
For weeks and longer I read key pundits write about the need for rate cuts in Australia. I was quite skeptical: I even concluded in February that a rate cut was NOT imminent. In a move that surprised me, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe effectively promised an imminent rate cut in … Read more
AT40 = 64.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral (change from bearish) Stock Market Commentary It was one of those amazing endings. First round of the NBA playoffs. The Portland Trailblazers up 3 games to … Read more
It is time to abandon my bullish expectations for the Australian dollar (FXA). On March 6th Philip Lowe, the chair of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), reminded financial markets that the near future holds the same likelihood for a rate cut as it does a rate hike: “There are plausible scenarios under which the … Read more
After reading the February 6th Address to the National Press Club of Australia by Philip Lowe, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), I am not so sure the market “got it right.” The following statement alone was used to suggest that the RBA might cut rates in the near future: “Looking forward, there … Read more