A Housing Boom Rapidly Emerges from Recovery – Housing Market Review (September, 2020)

Housing Market Intro and Summary The pandemic recession ended for housing in July. August demonstrated that an all-out housing boom is underway. I was expecting the housing data to start normalizing. Instead, demand pushed ever higher and supply tightened further. Housing Stocks Toll Brothers (TOL) started last week with a preliminary report on net new … Read more

New Bearish Divergence Shreds the Stock Trading Script – Above the 40 (August 21, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) is dropping at a rapid clip despite the stock market's melt-up.

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 60.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 7 overbought trading days)AT200 = 42.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 22.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages … Read more

Housing Divergence: Full Recoveries, Uneven Earnings, Lagging Consumers – Housing Market Review (July, 2020)

Housing Market Intro and Summary The housing downturn ended almost as quickly as it began. V-shaped recoveries are evident across a spectrum of data, especially in home builder sentiment and new home sales. Home builders continue to describe extremely strong demand that, in many cases, goes beyond the release of buying power pent-up by the … Read more

Divergent Fortunes and Trends – Housing Market Review (June, 2020)

Housing Market Intro and Summary I asked in my last Housing Market Review whether the housing downturn could already be coming to a swift end. The stocks of home builders delivered that message and more and more earnings reports from home builders are apparently delivering messages of a sharp recovery. A widening divergence between existing … Read more

Housing Downturn: V-Like Recoveries In Stocks Tug On Sluggish Data – Housing Market Review (May, 2020)

Housing Market Intro and Summary Could the housing downturn already be coming to a swift end? The stocks of home builders are delivering this message. They have enjoyed a very healthy rally and recovery from the depths of the March stock market crash. The challenges ahead are large: worsening economic conditions, unemployment at historically high … Read more

A $2.3 Trillion End to An Extreme Oversold Period in the Stock Market – Above the 40 (April 10, 2020)

AT40 = 24.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 31-day oversold period)AT200 = 10.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.7Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary “The Federal Reserve on Thursday took additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support … Read more

Green Shoots Push Into the Next Downtrend Threatening to Trample Stocks – Above the 40 (March 27, 2020)

AT40 = 3.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd oversold day)AT200 = 5.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 65.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary First a dose of hope: “Coronavirus treatment: Palo Alto woman recovers from coronavirus after … Read more

Green Shoots Begin Breaking Through Key Stock Downtrends – Above the 40 (March 24, 2020)

AT40 = 2.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (20th oversold day)AT200 = 3.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 61.7Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The week did not start as I feared with a 5th circuit breaker shut-down … Read more

The Walls Cave In On Housing-Related Stocks

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) crashed again, this time with a 20.2% loss. ITB slices right through the 2018 low and closed at a 3 1/2 year low.

It seems every week I need to generate new superlatives to describe the epic collapse in the stock market. For the housing-related stocks, forget animal spirits getting trampled. This time around the walls have all caved in on the sector. Today’s third crash during this sell-off in the stock market featured a complete collapse in … Read more

The Fresh Cracks In Housing-Related Stocks

First the good news. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% on Friday but bounced sharply from the lows of the day. That bounce preserved support at the uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA) and set the stage for a potential higher low that generates a lasting bottom. While, the … Read more