Central Bank Unease: Fed Caps Week of Emergency Actions As Markets Panic

In an earlier post on Sunday, I provided reasons to believe that the market was finally drawing a line in the sand for a sustainable bottom. With anticipation, I pronounced I would go on a shopping spreed down to S&P 500 (SPY) 2600. At the time of writing, it looks like I may have to … Read more

Forex Critical: Speculators Ride the Wave Against the Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen (FXY) is the one major currency that has been notably weaker than the U.S. dollar for most of the past month. USD/JPY peaked in December, 2016, but it looks like the sell-off bottomed out in April. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This yen weakness has been particularly evident against strong currencies, like the euro (FXE), … Read more

Above the 40 (July 6, 2017) – A Stock Market Swivel

AT40 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.5 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Diabolically, the stock market has put my head on the proverbial swivel. I earlier noted how the NASDAQ in particular … Read more

Maximum Yen Bullishness Faces Off Against the Bank of Japan

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 25, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Currency speculators are at “maximum bullishness”: bullish bets on the Japanese yen (FXY) have reached levels unseen since at least 2009. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders Facing off against this … Read more

Forex Critical: Trader Confidence Continues to Grow

In the previous week, forex traders extended existing positioning trends. This consistency reveals an on-going confidence in the given trends. Where these changes are consistent with currency moves, traders seem indeed justified in the confidence. However, there are some cases where these positions are starting to run counter to potential shifts in currencies. I expect … Read more

Far-Reaching Ripples From Japan’s Newly Negative Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 1, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Wednesday, January 27th, the U.S. Federal Reserve stared down volatile conditions in financial markets and decided to avoid addressing them directly. {snip} When the Bank of Japan (BoJ) came up … Read more

The Bank of Japan Maintains Stimulus Levels Even As Inflation Sits Well Below Target

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 7, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Bank of Japan put on a brave face as it announced its latest decision on monetary policy (October 7, 2015) with a big miss on its inflation target looming in … Read more

A Good Time for Adjusting the Bearish Trading Strategy on the Japanese Yen

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 23, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Ironically, this situation was essentially manufactured by these same authorities, but sure enough the first attempts to rein in the runaway train have appeared. Almost right on schedule, Japanese Finance … Read more

Bank of Japan Further Diverges from the U.S. Fed – Risk Trades In Focus

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 31, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) It seems somehow appropriate in these extraordinary times for central banking that less than two days after the U.S. Federal Reserve officially ends quantitative easing (QE) through its bond purchasing program, … Read more

T2108 Update (May 9, 2014) – A Looming Cessation of Hostilities for Momentum Stocks?

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more