Another Swift Drop In Stocks Paved the Way for Fresh Buying Power – Above the 40 (February 24, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary The split personality of the stock market resolved into major breakdowns in the stock market on Tuesday…for about 30 minutes. Apparently increasing inflation fears gave way to the soothing words of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Fed’s semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. Buyers quickly met the latest sharp and … Read more

Housing Activity Continues to Normalize Back to Annual Sales Trends – Housing Market Review (January, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary “…the level of housing activity is at its highest level since before the global financial crisis in some measure. So we’ve had a very strong rebound in housing. Some of the tightness in housing markets — which has led to the significant price increases this year — we think is … Read more

The Federal Reserve Pushes Back On Notion Of Fueling A Bubble

“I understand that you do address issues of valuations through macroprudential policies in the first instance. But there’s a range of assets, and I know you do watch a range of assets. But from Bitcoin to corporate bonds to the stock market in general, to some of these morespecific meteoric rises in stocks like GameStop. … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Celebrates New Fed Inflation Policy – Above the 40 (August 28, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) is back to overbought (above 70%).

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 71.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 7 overbought trading days)AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 23.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week was not a good time to be sitting on the sidelines … Read more

Economic Reality: Unemployment and the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

In early July, I rolled out an “economic reality” index to provide a sober summary of the economic trials and tribulations facing millions of Americans even as those of us with trades and investments in the stock market enjoy the largesse of monetary and fiscal stimulus. I am now putting the chart comparing continuing claims … Read more

Bottoming U.S. Dollar Ends Bargain Shopping in Mexican peso, South African rand

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) continues to pivot around its 200-day moving average (DMA). Last week, the U.S. dollar bounced before retesting the lows from March. The U.S. dollar now looks ready to challenge its 200DMA as resistance; it will likely complete another cycle by rallying at least to the previous highs above the 200DMA. … Read more

Stock Market Launches Deeply Into Overbought Trading Conditions – Above the 40 (April 29, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) soared to 82.6% and started overbought conditions at extreme levels.

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 82.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (first oversold day)AT200 = 17.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 31.2Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary On Tuesday, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), rallied … Read more

A $2.3 Trillion End to An Extreme Oversold Period in the Stock Market – Above the 40 (April 10, 2020)

AT40 = 24.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 31-day oversold period)AT200 = 10.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.7Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary “The Federal Reserve on Thursday took additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support … Read more

The U.S. Dollar Remains Well-Supported Despite A Month of Wild Swings

When the stock market sell-off began in earnest in late February, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) surprisingly plunged along with the major indices. I accepted the narrative explaining that the dollar’s decline came from the euro’s gain as “risk-off” traders rushed to close out euro shorts in carry trades. The swiftness of the risk-off move … Read more

Green Shoots Push Into the Next Downtrend Threatening to Trample Stocks – Above the 40 (March 27, 2020)

AT40 = 3.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd oversold day)AT200 = 5.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 65.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary First a dose of hope: “Coronavirus treatment: Palo Alto woman recovers from coronavirus after … Read more