ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Since the year 2000, delivering a different narrative for students and fans of financial markets: stocks, options, currencies, Bitcoin, and more…
Stock Market Commentary A curious break in the trading action unfolded as financial markets wrestled with two “disappointing” inflation reports. Both the CPI (consumer price index) and wholesale inflation (the producer price index or PPI) came in slightly higher than “expected” (headline and core). The data just tell me expectations are unrealistic or at best … Read more
Stock Market Commentary A decisive end to the extended overbought period signaled the arrival of bearish conditions last week. Bears boldly sold for one more day before a “stock bulls taunt” forced suddenly hesitant bears into a partial retreat. A sharp market divergence is now taking hold. While the major indices rallied off support and … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market got a case of the uglies last week. The end of summer trading transitioned right into a swift drawdown for the stock market’s second of the three most dangerous months of the year. The fresh breakdowns in the major indices accompanied new lows for market breadth. Suddenly, what I … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market pushed into overbought conditions last week. After one follow-through day, small caps wilted and dragged down market breadth toward the overbought threshold. That key setback raises the stakes of the current earnings period. I will try to look through the likely “chop” in the trading action, to identify on-going … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week started strong with Goldman Sachs (GS). Analysts there looked beyond the coming Federal Reserve meeting and hiked their year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 4500. The index quickly moved half the remaining distance and opened the door for more price chasing by analysts before 2023 hits the halfway … Read more
I used the Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC) for gold as a relatively reliable indicator for trading sentiment on the precious metal until around 2016. After that year, Google trends for the term “gold” essentially flatlined. When gold went parabolic to start 2022, the GTMC for “gold” failed to trigger. The extremes in search interest … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Last week I described how to reconcile a stock market that was both complacent and oversold. The stock market proceeded from there to double down on complacency while rebounding from “close enough to oversold” levels for market breadth. Traders are showing no worries as the volatility index (VIX) plunged to levels last … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: A sobering thought: American capitalism has yet to figure out how to sustain a stable banking system. The U.S. created the Federal Reserve system in 1914 as a response to the lessons from the banking Panic of 1907 and yet bank runs, bank panics, and bank failures continue to headline market dynamics … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: On cue, the stock market groaned at fresh signs of economic strength, this time from another strong jobs report. The recession Wall Street wants is on hold yet again. The bullish intent that charged out of the wake of the Federal Reserve’s last statement on monetary policy made a sharp u-turn. The … Read more
With the power change in the U.S. House of Representatives, 2023 will be another year of drama over the U.S.’s debt ceiling. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently brought the looming debt drama to the forefront of economic headlines by delivering the obligatory warning about the risk of default if Congress does not increase the debt … Read more