A Key Breakout Cracked the Back of the Bear Cycle – The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary I turned bearish on the stock market over two weeks ago. Last week began with confirmation as sellers followed through on a fade from a brief rally. Mid-week, the downward momentum came to a screeching halt as buyers took over most of the trading action. I pointed out the key signs suggesting … Read more

A Stock Market In Survival Mode – The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary I flipped bearish on the stock market over a week ago because of a significant breakdown in the S&P 500 (SPY). Moreover, the breakdown occurred alongside vulnerable breadth indices and a bottoming volatility index (VIX). As a result, when the index closed lower than the previous week’s low, I braced for follow-through. … Read more

Spotify Technology: The Hazard In Analyst Calls

Two weeks ago, I expressed caution over Spotify Technology (SPOT) in the wake of sellers fading an extremely bullish upgrade from an analyst at KeyBanc. That upgrade to overweight from sector weight included a $340 price target. The contrary and surprising trading action right after the analyst call was telling. A week after KeyBanc, an … Read more

A Test of the Stock Market’s Most Predictable Pattern – The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) is a key driver of the stock market’s most predictable pattern. The index’s relentless rise this year has held the majority of the trading action above the 20-day moving average (DMA) (the dotted line in the chart below). Brief dips below the 20DMA set up tests of the … Read more

Follow-Through Trades: Strong Start to September for Stocks

The Follow-Through: Strong Start for Stocks The month of September enjoyed a strong start as last week’s fairy dust from J-Pow continued to work its magic. Short-term market breadth with AT50, the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages (DMAs), also continuing higher while leaving behind the longer-term breadth indicator in AT200, the … Read more

J-Pow Sprinkles Just Enough Fairy Dust on the Stock Market – The Market Breadth

Stock Market Commentary Say whatever you want, Jerome (Jay) Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, affectionately known as J-Pow, has become a master orchestrator of the stock market. Other Federal Reserve Board members peppered the airwaves with hawkish talk about tapering and inflation in the days preceding Powell’s address at this year’s Jackson Hole, … Read more

Weakness Lingers As the Oversold Rebound Cools – The Market Breadth (July 30, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary Welcome to the new world of “The Market Breadth.” I used the switch from AT40 (T2108) to AT50 (MMFI) as my market breadth indicator to improve the name of this blog series. The Market Breadth marks a change from a technical name that sounds like a Space X rocket to an English … Read more

Music Streaming: Hard for Artists, Good for The Stocks

A month ago I mused about the business of music streaming and wondered how music artists make any money from their music. A recent episode of Marketplace provided the simple answer: the transition from buying music by the unit to paying a flat monthly fee has been unprofitable for the vast majority of music artists. … Read more

A New Low in Volatility Brought Fresh Promise to Overbought Stock Market – Above the 40 (February 12, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary After sweeping away bearish signals, the stock market moved right into overbought territory last week. The week started with a small gap up to all-time highs, and the stock market never looked back. More importantly, the volatility index (VIX) hit a new low since the stock market broke down almost a year … Read more

Stock Market Almost Overbought After Sweeping Away Bearish Signals – Above the 40 (February 5, 2020)

In a major display of buying power, AT40 (T2108) surged from 41% to 69% in just a week's time.

Stock Market Commentary Sellers beat a hasty retreat from the stock market as another bearish signal enjoyed a fleeting existence. The last bearish period lasted about three days. The previous bearish period barely survived a day. The stock market’s ability to quickly wipe away bearish signals is impressive. The buying force over the last week … Read more