ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my previous housing market update, I described the increasing pressure on the housing market. The housing data continued to worsen through mid-October, however housing-related stocks launched a strong rally. Rate relief from declining mortgage rates, accompanied by a rally in the bond market, provided a platform for a countertrend … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary The Stock Market Summary I have been making the case for months that the AI trade is topping. This last week’s price action added yet more confirmation. While the NASDAQ dropped 2% for the week, nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors finished higher, led by healthcare, materials, and utilities. That … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my previous housing market update, I described an enduring bear market in homebuilder stocks alongside weak sales, depressed builder sentiment, and constrained affordability. Unfortunately, that underlying story remains intact. Increasing pressure from higher mortgage rates, weakening builder sentiment, and stressed homebuilder stocks overshadows the month-over-month gains in housing starts … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary: Punished The Stock Market Summary The Federal Reserve actually did it. America’s central bank channeled Kevin Warsh’s previous jawboning into an actual rate hike. The Fed’s first such move since 2023 was well-priced by the Fed fund futures market, but the stock market was initially caught off-guard. The rate hike punished … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary: Latest Warning The Stock Market Summary Rising oil prices dominated the trading backdrop last week. Soaring oil prices helped emphasize inflation fears and bolstered higher bond yields (rates). While the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ survived tests of critical support thanks in large part to strong rebounds in AI-related stocks, small … Read more