Cocoa: A Bear Market in Prices Brings Fresh Opportunity

Cocoa prices have plunged along with the pandemic-driven crash in global financial markets. The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total Return ETN (NIB) reached a closing peak on February 13th just ahead of the global pandemic crisis. Since then, NIB is down 23.8%, a bear market in cocoa. Per my buy-the-dip strategy in NIB, this is … Read more

The Stock Market Manages to Stretch Out of Overbought Conditions – Above the 40 (January 17, 2020)

AT40 = 69.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ends 1-day overbought period) AT200 = 63.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market finally pushed into overbought territory on Thursday. The breakout only lasted for a day. … Read more

Cocoa: The End of a Breakout Starts A Buying Opportunity

The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) has sold off for 6 of the last 7 trading days on extremely high volume. Friday's 1.2% loss took NIB to its 200DMA support.

A Breakout and Reversal The price of cocoa has had a wild two months. Last month’s breakout quickly turned into a fade and an outright sell-off in December. The result for the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) is a complete reversal of the breakout, a return to the bottom of the previous consolidation range, … Read more

A Stock Market Content to Drift Higher No Matter What – Above the 40 (November 22, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) pulled back slightly last week as the stock market’s underlying bearish divergence finally proved too heavy. Yet, the pullback … Read more

How To Trade When An Analyst Flips A Stock: Deere & Company

Analyst action can quickly flip a stock and change its prospects. Such a move happened to Deere & Company (DE) as Baird moved from neutral to outperform and upped its price target from $129/share to $175/share on the stock. I previously flagged DE as a bearish stock given its week-long inability to break through overhead … Read more

Cocoa’s Price Surge Confirmed By Historic Supply Coordination

Two years ago, I wrote about the announcement from the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) indicating that cocoa-growing countries would coordinate production of cocoa to better support their economies. That news was soon followed by a recommendation from the African Development Bank (AfDB) to cocoa producers to find ways to control the supply of cocoa. At … Read more

A Stock Market Floating Precariously – Above the 40 (May 24, 2019)

AT40 = 34.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 43.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Bearish resistance won the trading battle the previous week. Last week, sellers did their best to follow-through. It was a week of chop … Read more

Bearish Resistance Won the Week Against Major Indices – More Churn Ahead: Above the 40 (May 17, 2019)

AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A day after the major indices flipped from bullish support to bearish resistance, buyers rallied these indices through resistance. It was a tenuous … Read more

Above the 40 (March 22, 2019) – Tension Headache: Dovish Fed Fails to Keep Market Complacent to Risks

AT40 = 45.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2+ month low)AT200 = 38.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.5 (20.9% gain)Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Friday’s trading action provided delayed confirmation of my short-term bearish trading call. The week previous to the last, … Read more

Cocoa: Ivory Coast Supply News Sets Up Buying Opportunity

Time for me to buy iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) again. NIB gapped down to start the week at least partially on the news of a surplus from the Ivory Coast. From Reuters: Cocoa arrivals at ports in top grower Ivory Coast reached 1.547 million tonnes between Oct. 1 and March 3, exporters estimated … Read more