Green Shoots Begin Breaking Through Key Stock Downtrends – Above the 40 (March 24, 2020)

AT40 = 2.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (20th oversold day)AT200 = 3.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 61.7Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The week did not start as I feared with a 5th circuit breaker shut-down … Read more

Shake and Bake Does A Bottom Make – Above the 40 (February 28, 2020)

AT40 = 7.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #3, dropped as low as 5.1%)AT200 = 21.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (13-month low, dropped as low as 17.8%)VIX = 40.1 (was as high as 49.5%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Oversold I had … Read more

Suddenly Oversold: Stock Market Extremes Continue – Above the 40 (February 25, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) bounced perfectly off the oversold threshold and closed at 21.1%

AT40 = 21.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Synchronized breakdowns below the 50-day moving average (DMA) looked like an extreme day of selling. The follow-up was even more spectacular. … Read more

Can the Market’s Healing Begin (aka Fed to the Rescue)? – Above the 40 (January 27, 2020)

AT40 = 45.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary I am so accustomed to the stock market’s resilience that I am already looking ahead to the rebound scenarios from … Read more

Resilience Cracks: Market’s Bearish Divergence Ends In Topping Pattern – Above the 40 (January 24, 2020)

AT40 = 52.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 58.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market finally pushed into overbought territory on Thursday, January 16th. The breakout quickly turned into a bust with AT40 (T2108), … Read more

The Stock Market Fights Through Concerning Signals – Above the 40 (September 25, 2019)

AT40 = 68.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 55.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary One More Risk to Ignore An impeachment inquiry, an “admission”, and fresh promises from President Trump about getting a trade deal done with … Read more

An Obvious Stock Market Breakout Leaves Open Questions – Above the 40 (September 6, 2019)

AT40 = 49.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary One Obvious Pattern to Another The S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ (COMPQX) transitioned from an obvious trading range to an obvious … Read more

A Stock Market Stuck In An Obvious Trading Range Still Produces A Rich Set of Expectations – Above the 40 (August 29, 2019)

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Trigger Finger On Tuesday (August 27), I saw enough hints of a flip from a bullish to bearish divergence … Read more

The 401K Stock Market Chokes On A Powell and Trade War Sandwich – Above the 40 (August 23, 2019)

AT40 = 28.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (see caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Presidential Decrees “Q    Six hundred and twenty-three points — that’s what the Dow was down today … Read more

Bearish Resistance Won the Week Against Major Indices – More Churn Ahead: Above the 40 (May 17, 2019)

AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A day after the major indices flipped from bullish support to bearish resistance, buyers rallied these indices through resistance. It was a tenuous … Read more