Overbought Period Demonstrates Freshly Bullish Sentiment for Stocks – Above the 40 (January 8, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary What a week to start the year’s trading. It started with a definitively bearish end to extended overbought conditions. Overbought conditions bullishly resumed in the middle of the week despite an insurrection in Washington D.C. The week ended with a confirmation of the freshly bullish sentiment in the market. The trading action … Read more

The Apple Trading Model: The Data Behind A Banner Year

Apple Trading Model - Monday average daily performance conditioned on the previous day's performance from 2018-2020

I have revised and implemented the Apple Trading Model (ATM) for several years. Last year was a banner year for buying and selling AAPL weekly call options in the ATM. The success makes sense given Apple (AAPL), along with so many other stocks, especially in tech, experienced incredible runs. The patterns for the Apple Trading … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Stretching for a Fresh Rally – Above the 40 (November 27, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 79.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #10 overbought) AT200 = 76.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and holding breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 20.8 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Instead of Monday, … Read more

How to Buy Jumia Technologies with Limited Risk

Jumia Technologies (JMIA), the “Amazon of Africa”, is up 191% since closing with a 19% 1-day, post-earnings loss on November 10th. The stock is at a 19-month high and has once again become a strong momentum trade. However, buying at these heights inherently comes with a lot of risk. At some point, the stock will … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Bang and a Whimper – Above the 40 (November 20, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 76.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (Day #6 overbought) AT200 = 71.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 3-year high and holding breakout above post financial crisis downtrend) VIX = 23.7 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market … Read more

Tech Fertilizes the Weeds in the Stock Market – Above the 40 (September 11, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 40.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2-month low)AT200 = 43.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2 1/2 week low)VIX = 31.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary The weeds in the stock market thickened last week. Tech stocks fertilized the … Read more

A Pause in the Frenzy Ends Stock Market Bid for A Parabolic Run-Up – Above the 40 (September 4, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 54.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (intraday low of 45.9% which was solid support in second half of July and early August)AT200 = 46.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 30.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary I thought … Read more

Clorox: Stock’s Breakdown Makes Tepid Guidance Even Less Attractive

Clorox (CLX) is a stalwart of the pandemic economy. The company’s line-up of cleaning and disinfectant products are favorites for COVID-19 safety routines. While the company sells products like vitamins, bags and wraps, cat litter, food, water filtration, and natural personal care, Clorox is the cleaning company. As the cleaning company, the stock has enjoyed … Read more

Nikola: Hitching A Sustainable Trade to Ride Through the Hype

Nikola (NKLA) finally showed some signs of life a day again with a 22% pre-earnings pop after two months of persistent selling.

Zero-emissions truck company Nikola (NKLA) has been a short-seller’s dream for almost two months given the pressure from sellers and a rapidly expanding float. As a pre-revenue company with no product in the market and a multi-billion dollar market cap, Nikola naturally attracts a lot of scrutiny. I finally got interested in the company and … Read more

Hibbett Sports: Anatomy of A Stock’s Bullish Breakout

On June 25th, call options in sportings goods retailer Hibbett Sports (HIBB) sprang to life. At the time, around 1500 October $22.50 calls traded versus 0 open interest. On June 29th, open interest climbed above 2500. For context, HIBB options are sparsely traded. The second highest open interest sits with the Jan 15 ’21 calls … Read more