Stock Market Strengthens Breakaway from Oversold Periods – Above the 40 (April 17, 2020)

AT40 = 34.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 12.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 38.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary Ever since the S&P 500 (SPY) bearishly broke down below its 50-day moving average (DMA) on February 24th, AT40 (T2108), the … Read more

Green Shoots Push Into the Next Downtrend Threatening to Trample Stocks – Above the 40 (March 27, 2020)

AT40 = 3.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd oversold day)AT200 = 5.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 65.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary First a dose of hope: “Coronavirus treatment: Palo Alto woman recovers from coronavirus after … Read more

An Ugly Weekly Gain for An Extremely Oversold Stock Market – Above the 40 (March 6, 2020)

AT40 = 9.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (8th oversold day)AT200 = 23.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.9Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The Shake and Bake bottom barely held as support last week. It was a week of dramatic ups and downs … Read more

Shake and Bake Does A Bottom Make – Above the 40 (February 28, 2020)

AT40 = 7.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #3, dropped as low as 5.1%)AT200 = 21.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (13-month low, dropped as low as 17.8%)VIX = 40.1 (was as high as 49.5%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Oversold I had … Read more

Buyers Tap the Brakes As Economic Data Stall In the Crosswalk – Above the 40 (February 21, 2020)

The NADSAQ (COMPQX) lost 1.8% for a 2-week low.

AT40 = 48.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.1Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Sellers put on a rare performance: the S&P 500 fell for two days in a row. Buyers tapped the brakes on … Read more

A Failed Healing: Stock Market Further Confirms Topping Patterns – Above the 40 (January 31, 2020)

AT40 = 38.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week, I switched from neutral for the first time in, I believe, months. I downgraded to “cautiously bearish” because … Read more

Resilience Cracks: Market’s Bearish Divergence Ends In Topping Pattern – Above the 40 (January 24, 2020)

AT40 = 52.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 58.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market finally pushed into overbought territory on Thursday, January 16th. The breakout quickly turned into a bust with AT40 (T2108), … Read more

Overbought Conditions a Next Step to Ease Topping Tension for Stocks – Above the 40 (December 27, 2019)

AT40 = 65.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 59.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just under the high for 2019 of 60.2%)VIX = 13.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week after my last Above the 40 post, the volatility index (VIX) is my … Read more

A Narrowing Rally and A Sentiment Shift Define the Stock Market – Above the 40 (October 25, 2019)

AT40 = 59.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral (see below) Stock Market Commentary A Sufficient Resolution I still harbor lingering skepticism, but the S&P 500’s recovery from the last hiccup and its subsequent slow … Read more

Stock Market Slams Into October’s Average Drawdown In Two Days Flat – Above the 40 (October 2, 2019)

The S&P 500 (SPY) confirmed its 50DMA breakdown with a 1.8% loss, but also closed well below its lower Bollinger Band.

AT40 = 39.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (intraday low at 34.5%)AT200 = 45.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 20.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Exit The selling today was so broad that even Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility … Read more