The Day the Stock Market Lost Apple

Apple (AAPL) lost 12.9% and broke its 200DMA for the first time during the market collapse.

“Looking for one of the 4% of stocks still trading above their respective 200DMAs? Apple (AAPL) is one of those lucky few. If sellers break AAPL, I foresee two binary possibilities: 1) buyers will finally see enough bargains to go on a buying spree, or 2) buyers give up all hope and the resulting rush … Read more

Stock Market Lessons from Cramer In Turmoil

As I scrambled to write my update on a “suddenly oversold” market stock market, I listened to Jim Cramer’s Mad Money. Cramer is naturally entertaining, and I particularly like hearing his take at key market moments like these. On Tuesday, February 25th, Cramer was firmly in the bearish camp on his Mad Money show. He … Read more

A Stock Market Stuck In An Obvious Trading Range Still Produces A Rich Set of Expectations – Above the 40 (August 29, 2019)

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Trigger Finger On Tuesday (August 27), I saw enough hints of a flip from a bullish to bearish divergence … Read more

Trade War Realities Weigh More Heavily

The Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen (AUD/JPY) is back to trading at levels last seen in the immediate wake of the financial crisis. A declining AUD/JPY helps to expose the intensifying risk-off sentiment in financial markets.

An Inescapable Truth In June, 2018, I made the following claims and observations (with fresh emphasis): “…at the end of the day, Trump is determined to drive the U.S. trade deficit as close to zero as possible. This cannot happen without some substantial economic disruptions. To the extent the market refuses to price in these … Read more

A Manic Stock Market Leaves Behind An Extreme August Drawdown – Above the 40 (August 9, 2019)

Much ado about nothing? The 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) shows the gory details of a manic swoon to a near flat close for the week.

AT40 = 37.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week almost where it started. In between the bookends, the market gyrated wildly … Read more

Above the 40 (January 4, 2019) – The Oversold Chronicles End As A Fed-Inspired Stock Market Explodes Higher

AT40 = 20.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 13 days in oversold territory)AT200 = 14.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 21.4Short-term Trading Call: bullish (with caveats all over again) Commentary All oversold periods must end – it is just a matter of how and … Read more

Above the 40 (November 30, 2018) – Market Sentiment Quickly Transforms: Enter the “Cramer Bottom”

AT40 = 44.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 30.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just above a 32-month low) VIX = 18.1 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week was a week where the stock market seemed to force its way into the endzone … Read more

Jim Cramer’s Confusing Calls on Nvidia Corporation

The business of stock prognostication is a tough one: a lot of uncertainty abounds, markets swing through surprisingly long bouts of herd-following and counter-trend sentiments, bots and market makers can rampage through the best technical setups, and companies sometimes only disclose the minimally required information. I dare to prognosticate only with risk management as a … Read more

Toll Brothers: Examining the Mystery of the Stock’s Weakness

“Haters gonna hate.” That phrase was a great way for CNBC’s Jim Cramer to begin his monologue introducing his interview with Toll Brothers CEO Douglas C. Yearley. In 2018, investors have exhibited plenty of loathing for the stocks of home builders despite an on-going string of strong earnings results and the backdrop of a strong … Read more

A Low Risk Way to Play Cramer’s Call for A Bottom In General Electric

General Electric (GE) has become THE disaster and rescue story in the U.S. stock market this year. Since it’s near-death experience in the financial crisis, GE ground out a slow but steady recovery before peaking in the summer of 2016 in the middle of a head and shoulders topping formation. That top fell well short … Read more