Back to the Regularly Scheduled Stock Market Melt-Up – Above the 40 (July 10, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary The stock market melt-up took a one day break. The signs of trouble were ever more clear ahead of the break. Something was wrong with the picture in the stock market. Yet, sellers could barely follow through. The S&P 500 stumbled with a gap down, but buyers stepped right back in at … Read more

Stock Market Rebounded from the Brink of A Real Sell-Off – Above the 40 (May 14, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary Last week featured yet another episode of momentary panic proceeded by a virtual “all clear” signal. In the middle of the week, the S&P 500 (SPY) broke down just as the stock market hit extremes. Subsequently, buyers stepped into the breach. As a result, the very next day, the stock market rebounded … Read more

Tricky Trading Quickly Took Stocks from Strength to Weakness – Above the 40 (February 26, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary The stock market got quite tricky last week. A day after buyers re-established control, sellers returned with a sustained fury. The selling on Thursday reflected the stock market’s split personality while the follow-up selling on Friday seemed broader. The pressure on the the stock market looks like an ominous setup for March … Read more

A Grinding Bear Market Hits More Oversold History – Above the 40 (March 18, 2020)

AT40 = 2.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (16th oversold day)AT200 = 4.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 76.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The week started with another stomach churning loss with the S&P 500 (SPY) losing 12.0%. It was a day where … Read more

The Day the Stock Market Lost Apple

Apple (AAPL) lost 12.9% and broke its 200DMA for the first time during the market collapse.

“Looking for one of the 4% of stocks still trading above their respective 200DMAs? Apple (AAPL) is one of those lucky few. If sellers break AAPL, I foresee two binary possibilities: 1) buyers will finally see enough bargains to go on a buying spree, or 2) buyers give up all hope and the resulting rush … Read more

An Oversold Stock Market Stakes A Claim On A Bottom – Above the 40 (March 2, 2020)

The S&P 500 (SPY) jumped 4.6% and sliced right through 200DMA resistance.

AT40 = 11.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 29.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 33.4Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary On a day of incredible moves, I was most surprised that the stock market gave traders a chance to get in on the … Read more

One Way to Trade Apple’s Stock Ahead of Earnings

Historic Bearishness In Apple Bloomberg published an article on July 8th titled “Wall Street Hasn’t Been This Pessimistic on Apple in Decades.” Out of 57 analyst ratings, 5 were outright sells on AAPL. Amazingly, AAPL has not attracted this many bears since at least 1997. Of course, 10% of analysts is a small fraction and … Read more

An Important Correction to the Apple Trading Model

In early April, 2015, I simplified my Apple Trading Model (ATM). I examined the historical data to determine whether Apple’s (AAPL) open contained all the information needed to trade the stock on the day. I had an “ah ha” moment when I discovered that AAPL tended to trade in the same direction of its open. … Read more

Betting On Apple Earnings As the Stock Struggles to Hold Support

Apple (AAPL) reports earnings after market hours today (April 26, 2016). At the time of writing, the stock is barely holding onto support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) almost two weeks after a disastrous breach of 200DMA support. Source: The current sell-off sets up a great opportunity to play post-earnings upside. April is … Read more

One Chart That Rings An Alarm For Future Chinese Consumption

“…emerging markets experienced a more recent run-up in indebtedness, which started around the time of the crisis, and is still continuing. In other words, their deleveraging has not even begun. This has the potential to create persistent spending disappointments, if monetary policy is unable to stimulate other spending sufficiently.” – “Debt, Demographics and the Distribution … Read more