Home Builder Stocks Powered Through Softening Housing Data – Housing Market Review (March, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary Softening housing data pointed to more normalization in the housing market. Normalization is returning housing data to prior trends and in some cases suggesting important plateaus. Home builder stocks powered through the softening data to show strength in sharp rebounds and fresh all-time highs. The arrival of the Spring selling … Read more

Upward America Venture: Lennar Tackles Housing Affordability Challenge

Just as I was going about to close the books on the seasonal trade in home builders, Lennar (LEN) revived upward momentum across home builders. LEN gained 13.8% after announcing a partnership with Centerbridge to invest in rental single-family housing. News of the “Upward America Venture” lit a fire across the sector. However, the excitement … Read more

Housing Stocks In Limbo Amid New Signs of Market Normalization – Housing Market Review (December, 2020)

Housing Market Intro and Summary In recent months a divergence in the housing market emerged between rangebound home builder stocks and strong housing data. In October, new home sales recorded a third straight month at the 1 million mark. Since new home sales hit an August peak, the stocks of home builders have also largely … Read more

Record Confidence, Rangebound Sales and Stocks – Housing Market Review (November, 2020)

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund (ITB) lost 1.4% as it continues to pivot around its 50-day moving average in an extended trading range.

Housing Market Intro and Summary A divergence in the housing market emerged between rangebound home builder stocks and strong housing data. In October, new home sales recorded a third straight month at the 1 million mark. Since new home sales hit the August peak, the stocks of home builders have also largely gone nowhere. A … Read more

Divergence in the Housing Market: Slowing Stocks vs Soaring Data – Housing Market Review (October, 2020)

Housing Market Intro and Summary A divergence in the housing market is emerging between slowing home builder stocks and strong housing data. The housing boom in the U.S. continued to make its mark in the middle of the pandemic-induced recession. While new home sales took a bit of a pause in October, housing starts, existing … Read more

Why Lennar and Other Home Builder Stocks Failed to Rally On Good News

The Message in Home Builder Sentiment The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported a tremendous surge in the sentiment of home builders. The Housing Market Index (HMI) soared from 37 in May to 58 in June. Just two months after suffering a historic plunge, sentiment among home builders is right back to positive territory. … Read more

Stock Market Breaks Out to Overbought Territory Yet Again – Above the 40 (May 18, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 75.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (first oversold day)AT200 = 18.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 29.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Buyers followed through on the building momentum from the previous two trading days which drew a line … Read more

Housing Downturn: Optimism Races Ahead of the Data – Housing Market Review (April, 2020)

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (ITB) gained 4.2% and closed at a 2-month high.

Housing Market Intro and Summary Something surprising is happening in the middle of the current downturn in the housing market: buyers keep coming and home builders are staying resilient and resolute. A series of earnings reports from publicly traded home builders do not reflect the historic plunge in builder sentiment from April (see below). The … Read more

Green Shoots Begin Breaking Through Key Stock Downtrends – Above the 40 (March 24, 2020)

AT40 = 2.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (20th oversold day)AT200 = 3.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 61.7Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The week did not start as I feared with a 5th circuit breaker shut-down … Read more

The Walls Cave In On Housing-Related Stocks

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) crashed again, this time with a 20.2% loss. ITB slices right through the 2018 low and closed at a 3 1/2 year low.

It seems every week I need to generate new superlatives to describe the epic collapse in the stock market. For the housing-related stocks, forget animal spirits getting trampled. This time around the walls have all caved in on the sector. Today’s third crash during this sell-off in the stock market featured a complete collapse in … Read more