A Rare Stumble for the Stock Market As Oversold Conditions Loom – Above the 40 (June 18, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary The Federal Reserve seemed to change the rules of the game. To-date, easy money policies and stubborn dovishness in the face of rising inflation was a formula for higher asset prices, reflation and inflation-friendly trades, and even rising fears of an over-heating economy. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell shifted the … Read more

Normalization Places Fresh Pressures on the Spring Selling Season – Housing Market Review (May, 2021)

Housing Market Intro and Summary The Spring selling season looked like it started strong for new home sales. The data for April reveal a story evolving differently. Absolute inventories rose for both existing and new homes and yet sales declined. Housing starts also suffered a setback. Median prices of homes soared, especially for new homes, … Read more

A Stock Market Resigned to Chopping and Churning – Above the 40 (May 21, 2021)

Stock Market Commentary Last week delivered another key test of support levels for the stock market. The major indices passed their individual tests, but the week ended with no resolution. Bulls and bears are battling between short-term ranges that are chopping and churning traders. With the stock market resigned to this kind of chop, patient … Read more

Turkish Central Bank Hiked Policy Rate, But Too Late for the Turkish Lira?

The monthly chart of the U.S. dollar versus Turkish lira (USD/TRY) shows a near relentless and massive devaluation.

The Turkish lira suffered another run of sustained weakness this month. Weakness in the Turkish lira drove USD/TRY to new all-time highs. On Thursday, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) tried yet again to stop the bleeding. The Turkish Central Bank hiked its policy rate an entire 200 basis points from 8.25% … Read more

Turkish Lira Survives A Rate Cut And Comes Out With Stronger Prospects

The U.S. dollar versus the Turkish lira (USD/TRY) is rapidly heading downward for a test of 200DMA support.

Perhaps President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was right all along? It seems rate cuts are exactly what Turkey needs. As global central banks pedal backward on monetary policy, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) stands out with its extremely high rates. The CBRT got here as part of a fight against persistent and … Read more

Above the 40 (February 14, 2018) – A Bullish Tech Breakout Underlines the End of Oversold Conditions

AT40 = 27.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.3 (drop of 22.9%) Short-term Trading Call: bullish PROLOGUE Valentine’s Day, February 14th, was a great day in the stock market and a fantastic validation of my strategizing … Read more

Time For A Little Harvesting Even As Tailwinds Strengthen For The British Pound

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 14, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} These quotes came from Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England (BoE), in response to questions during the Q&A period of the November Inflation Report. I believe Carney reminded … Read more

A Policy Island for the Fed: The Bank of England and U.S. Economic Data Isolate the Fed

This past week was an important one for monetary policy. The Bank of England (BoE) made clear it is willing to put off rate hikes as long as necessary. Despite its words that suggest otherwise, the Bank is NOT biased for action. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen made it clear that, all else being … Read more

The Turkish Lira Approaches All-Time Lows As the Central Bank Fails to End the Selling

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 31, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) A month ago, I pointed out how the Turkish lira had reversed all its post-election losses. I argued that the lira was due to resume its weakness as the Central Bank … Read more

Australia’s Q4 2014 Inflation Enough to Erase Momentum for February Rate Cut

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 25, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Perhaps the market was really expecting a much lower inflation reading in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia for the fourth quarter of … Read more