Stocks Wind Back Up – Above the 40 (July 31, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 35.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 24.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Major League Baseball (MLB) may be forced to wind back down, but stocks look like they are winding … Read more

Support for Another Round of Overbought Conditions in the Stock Market – Above the 40 (June 13, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 74.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (first overbought day, 17 of last 19 trading days overbought)AT200 = 22.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 36.1 (down 11.5%)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary In the last Above the 40 … Read more

Stock Market Bears Finally Draw A Line In the Sand – Above the 40 (May 12, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) sell through the overbought threshold for the second time in a week.

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 64.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ending 3-day overbought period)AT200 = 15.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 33.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Winners and losers are still becoming ever more distinct in the stock market, but today stock … Read more

Tech Leaves Behind A Stock Market Back in Oversold Conditions – Above the 40 (April 13, 2020)

AT40 = 19.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #1)AT200 = 9.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary It lasted just a day. The market’s historic oversold period lasted 31 days and ended with a flurry. This … Read more

A $2.3 Trillion End to An Extreme Oversold Period in the Stock Market – Above the 40 (April 10, 2020)

AT40 = 24.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 31-day oversold period)AT200 = 10.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.7Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary “The Federal Reserve on Thursday took additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support … Read more

A Broad Market Breakout Reawakens the Green Shoots (Above the 40) – April 6, 2020

AT40 = 7.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (28th oversold day)AT200 = 6.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 45.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary Today’s dose of hope comes in the form of definitive breakouts. No sooner … Read more

Second Derivative Selling Produces A Stock Market Crash – Above the 40 (March 9, 2020)

AT40 = 4.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (9th oversold day)AT200 = 11.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 54.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The Shake and Bake bottom completely collapsed on Monday in the face of massive second derivative selling. The stock market … Read more

T2108 Update (November 13, 2015) – The S&P 500 Faces A Key Market Test

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

T2108 Update (September 25, 2015) – Stock Market Skirts Oversold Conditions As IBB Plunges On Record Volume

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

The Simple Calculus for the Timing of The Fed’s First Rate Hike

“…I expect that inflation will return to 2 percent over the next few years as the temporary factors that are currently weighing on inflation wane, provided that economic growth continues to be strong enough to complete the return to maximum employment and long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored. Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate … Read more