ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Market Breadth Summary The Stock Market Summary The stock market finds itself in a place I did not fully anticipate, even as recently as my last market check-in. Market breadth is rebounding as I suspected it might, and the recovery increasingly looks like a bottoming process. Yet the recovery is leaving behind the once-dominant … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary: Punished The Stock Market Summary The Federal Reserve actually did it. America’s central bank channeled Kevin Warsh’s previous jawboning into an actual rate hike. The Fed’s first such move since 2023 was well-priced by the Fed fund futures market, but the stock market was initially caught off-guard. The rate hike punished … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary: AI Rebound The Stock Market Summary The stock market rapidly transitioned from an AI crash to all-time highs in less than one week. Strong earnings revived the AI trade, software joined the advance, and the major indices pushed back toward their all-time highs. Momentum faded in the middle of the week … Read more
Stock Market Commentary I am seeing more and more cracks widening in the stock market, and I am getting increasingly concerned. I am trying to stay bullish because the seasonally strong period has started for the stock market. However, after such a strong August, strong September, and strong October, each of which is historically one … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The stock market started the week in familiar melt-up mode, supported by a (temporary) thaw in the economic war between the U.S. and China. Optimism persisted until the Federal Reserve weighed in with its latest announcement on monetary policy, when Chair Jerome Powell balked at the idea of a December rate cut. … Read more