ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The Market Breadth Summary This is the week I finally had to turn bearish on the stock market. The warning signs have piled up too high for me to continue ignoring them. The momentum in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ has been incredibly strong, and that momentum kept me from making this call earlier. However, … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary Stock Market Commentary Last week was bullish, and yet the bearish signal that bothered me early in the year returned. Market breadth flashed bearish even as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ broke out to all-time highs. This bearish divergence is exactly the setup I did not want to see. The … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary Stock Market Commentary Oil prices loom over financial markets. Oil prices are being driven largely by whether the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed following Iran’s retaliation against attacks by the U.S. and Israel. The inverse correlation over the last two weeks has been clear: oil prices up, stock prices down … Read more
Stock Market Analysis Summary Major U.S. equity indices extended gains after a strong end to November, supported by expectations of a December Fed rate cut. Market breadth indicators (AT50, AT200) improved but failed at primary downtrend resistance, signaling lingering internal weakness. Small caps (IWM) outperformed with a breakout to all-time highs, while several major tech … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The month of August featured three distinctly strong expansions of market breadth. The last expansion featured the largest single-day expansion I have ever seen. In between these episodes, the market showed signs of exhaustion. The latest exhaustion is centered on the AI trade. NVDA earnings slightly disappointed and included slowing revenue growth … Read more