An Obvious Stock Market Breakout Leaves Open Questions – Above the 40 (September 6, 2019)

AT40 = 49.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary One Obvious Pattern to Another The S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ (COMPQX) transitioned from an obvious trading range to an obvious … Read more

A Stock Market Stuck In An Obvious Trading Range Still Produces A Rich Set of Expectations – Above the 40 (August 29, 2019)

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Trigger Finger On Tuesday (August 27), I saw enough hints of a flip from a bullish to bearish divergence … Read more

The 401K Stock Market Chokes On A Powell and Trade War Sandwich – Above the 40 (August 23, 2019)

AT40 = 28.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (see caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Presidential Decrees “Q    Six hundred and twenty-three points — that’s what the Dow was down today … Read more

The 401K Stock Market Holds Support At the August Extreme – Above the 40 (August 16, 2019)

AT40 = 33.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 43.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 18.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (from neutral) Stock Market Commentary The extreme of August held as support…just barely. Sneaky Resilience The S&P 500 (SPY) gapped up 1.4% … Read more

A Manic Stock Market Leaves Behind An Extreme August Drawdown – Above the 40 (August 9, 2019)

Much ado about nothing? The 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) shows the gory details of a manic swoon to a near flat close for the week.

AT40 = 37.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week almost where it started. In between the bookends, the market gyrated wildly … Read more

A Trade War Truce Defies the Bad News Narrative for Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 28, 2019)

AT40 = 60.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Trade War The search for news bad enough to convince the Federal Reserve to cut rates continues. The weekend began with news … Read more

From Loitering to Breakout: Stocks Look for Bad News Worthy of Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 21, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is officially in bizarro world. The stock market is breathlessly rallying in anticipation of rate cuts that will come … Read more

Stock Market Indices Loiter While Awaiting News On Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 14, 2019)

AT40 = 42.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary After two bearish fades to start the week, the stock market dribbled along. Now the market waits for word on news bad … Read more

Two Straight Fades Equals A Toppy Stock Market – Above the 40 (June 11, 2019)

AT40 = 39.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 45.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (downgrade from cautiously bullish) Stock Market Commentary The last 5 or 6 trading days have been good for bulls and buyers. It was fun while … Read more

Rate Cut Promises Rescued A Stock Market Near Oversold – Above the 40 (June 7, 2019)

AT40 = 38.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 18.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary From opening at the edge of oversold trading conditions to closing on near panic buying, last week was a wild week! … Read more