Historic Oversold Conditions Stretch Into A Bear Market – Above the 40 (March 12, 2020)

AT40 = 1.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (12th oversold day)AT200 = 4.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 75.5 (just short of financial crisis all-time high of 90)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary When I said a persistently elevated volatility index (VIX) warned us … Read more

The Fresh Cracks In Housing-Related Stocks

First the good news. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% on Friday but bounced sharply from the lows of the day. That bounce preserved support at the uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA) and set the stage for a potential higher low that generates a lasting bottom. While, the … Read more

A Growing Bearish Divergence Has Yet to Spoil Rally In Stock Indices – Above the 40 (November 8, 2019)

AT40 = 57.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market seems to be on a slow and steady march toward Christmas. The current bearish divergence and an exceptionally low volatility … Read more

New Pressures for the Stock Market Despite Fade in Concerning Signals – Above the 40 (September 27, 2019)

AT40 = 61.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 17.2Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary A Conditionally Bearish Breakdown Friday’s trading action triggered my prime condition for flipping bearish. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks … Read more

A Stock Market Stuck In An Obvious Trading Range Still Produces A Rich Set of Expectations – Above the 40 (August 29, 2019)

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Trigger Finger On Tuesday (August 27), I saw enough hints of a flip from a bullish to bearish divergence … Read more

The 401K Stock Market Chokes On A Powell and Trade War Sandwich – Above the 40 (August 23, 2019)

AT40 = 28.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (see caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Presidential Decrees “Q    Six hundred and twenty-three points — that’s what the Dow was down today … Read more

Real Estate Pairs Trade Refresh: Long Redfin, Short Zillow Group

The ratio of Redfin (RDFN) vs Zillow Group (Z) (ZG) is bouncing off its well-supported historic lows.

My last pairs trade going long Redfin (RDFN) calls versus long Zillow Group (Z) (ZG) put options did not work out as I over-extended my stay on RDFN. A fresh opportunity for a pairs trade has arrived with RDFN neatly testing key support after reversing most of its post-earnings gains and with Zillow Group in … Read more

Realogy and Amazon.com Partner Up But Does It Matter?

Realogy (RLGY) is struggling to avoid a resumption of its vicious downtrend.

Two weeks ago I threw up a chart of Realogy (RLGY) just to have something bearish to show among a group of bullish charts. I wondered why this company of real estate agents and brokers was in a persistent decline while housing-related stocks were generally holding up well. On July 23, Realogy rolled out what … Read more

Rate Cut Cheer Not Yet Enough to Push Stock Market To Overbought – Above the 40 (July 12, 2019)

After a bullish run-up, AT40 (T2108) struggled all week to break through the overbought threshold.

AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 12.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary After the report on June jobs, financial markets got … Read more

Above the 40 (May 10, 2019) – A Constructive Stock Market

AT40 = 49.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 49.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market’s coordinated yet precarious dance around 50-day moving averages (DMAs) continued on Friday. The latest round of technical battles played out … Read more