Stocks Wind Back Up – Above the 40 (July 31, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 51.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 35.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 24.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Major League Baseball (MLB) may be forced to wind back down, but stocks look like they are winding … Read more

How to Invest in the Soaring Rate of U.S. Homeownership

Accelerating Homeownership Rates The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated many trends that were underway going into 2020. Rising homeownership rates in the U.S. hopped onto the trend. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Homeownership Rate for the United States [RSAHORUSQ156S], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; July 29, 2020. The above (adjustable) graph shows the … Read more

Stocks Unwind Ahead of Key Stimulus Decisions and Earnings – Above the 40 (July 24, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 53.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 33.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 25.8Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), barely budged all week … Read more

LGI Homes: Stock All-Time Highs As Business Races Past COVID-19 Woes

LGI Homes (LGIH) gained 3.2% and closed just short of the all-time high it hit 2 days prior.

Look no further than LGI Homes (LGIH) as a confirmation that at least some parts of the country are back to business after a temporary pause from COVID-19 (coronavirus) economic woes. Last week, LGI Homes reported more astounding sales results. From the press release: June home closings: +16.7% year-over-year Q2 home closings: +3.1% year-over-year, the … Read more

Stock Market Bottoms Ahead of the Worst Jobs News In A Crisis

Purists in the financial markets often decry the “voodoo” of technical analysis. The U.S. jobs report for May, 2020 is an extreme version of how the fundamentals can also fail to provide sufficient guidance for trading and investing in financial markets. Economists and other sooth-sayers in consensus expected the U.S. economy to lose 8.3 million … Read more

Rate Cut Cheer Not Yet Enough to Push Stock Market To Overbought – Above the 40 (July 12, 2019)

After a bullish run-up, AT40 (T2108) struggled all week to break through the overbought threshold.

AT40 = 68.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 12.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary After the report on June jobs, financial markets got … Read more

An All-Time High Defines History, Not the Future

The S&P 500 (SPY) traded at an all-time high last week. This milestone means that the broad-based index never closed above that level, 2954.20, before that time. Specifically, “all-time” is an adjective with two meanings according to Dictionary.com: “never surpassed or greater” “regarded as such in its entire history” Despite the clarity of this definition, … Read more

From Loitering to Breakout: Stocks Look for Bad News Worthy of Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 21, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is officially in bizarro world. The stock market is breathlessly rallying in anticipation of rate cuts that will come … Read more

Above the 40 (June 5, 2018) – The Apple Temptation of the Stock Market Redux

AT40 = 65.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (a 4-month high) VIX = 12.4 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary A month ago I pounded the table for Apple (AAPL). I was tempted to extend that sentiment to the … Read more

Above the 40 (March 9, 2018) – Stock Market Returns To Its Originally Scheduled Programming

AT40 = 48.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 52.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6 (11.5% drop) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The (expected) plunge in the volatility index, the VIX, says it all…the stock market is ready to return to its … Read more