Green Shoots Begin Breaking Through Key Stock Downtrends – Above the 40 (March 24, 2020)

AT40 = 2.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (20th oversold day)AT200 = 3.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 61.7Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The week did not start as I feared with a 5th circuit breaker shut-down … Read more

A Sharp Market Rebound, Too Many Stocks Left Behind – Above the 40 (February 7, 2020)

AT40 = 47.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 15.5Short-term Trading Call: bearish (from cautiously bearish) Stock Market Commentary The major indices managed to swing to all-time highs last week, but I still see signs of a … Read more

Resilience Cracks: Market’s Bearish Divergence Ends In Topping Pattern – Above the 40 (January 24, 2020)

AT40 = 52.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 58.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market finally pushed into overbought territory on Thursday, January 16th. The breakout quickly turned into a bust with AT40 (T2108), … Read more

Give Me Gold And Silver for Christmas

The stock market has floated higher on the good tidings of easy monetary policies around the globe. The Federal Reserve recently suggested that it will be on hold for the foreseeable future. These accommodative conditions are positive for precious metals, but both gold and silver topped out in early September. In hindsight, the run-up into … Read more

A Concerning Set of Signals: Gold, Silver, Bonds, and Currencies

The Australian dollar vs Japanese yen (AUD/JPY) enjoyed just a brief 50DMA breakout and now looks poised to retest recent lows.

The economic data continue to worsen in Europe. While it is difficult to find signs of concern in U.S. markets, wariness is etched in a few key corners of financial markets. Precious Signals Notably, the precious metals gold and silver look ready for a fresh upward push. Gold and silver can perform well in times … Read more

From Loitering to Breakout: Stocks Look for Bad News Worthy of Rate Cuts – Above the 40 (June 21, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 50.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market is officially in bizarro world. The stock market is breathlessly rallying in anticipation of rate cuts that will come … Read more

Above the 40 (February 19, 2019) – An Extended Overbought Rally In Slow Motion

AT40 = 88.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (17th overbought day)AT200 = 45.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (4-month high that effectively reverses the October, 2018 breakdown)VIX = 14.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, … Read more

Above the 40 (January 25, 2019) – Stock Market Completes A 1-Week Roundtrip Back to Overbought

AT40 = 76.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st overbought day)AT200 = 28.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 2-month high)VIX = 17.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary It was just a week ago when the stock market surged to overbought levels in a bullish move. AT40 … Read more

Above the 40 (December 26, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: Stock Market Delivers Major Reprieve for the Post-Trump Reversal

AT40 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #8)AT200 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 30.4 (down 15.7%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Pick your favorite catalyst or explanation. I am sure there is good news (or the absence of bad news) out … Read more

Above the 40 (December 20, 2018) – Oversold Chronicles: Small-Caps Tumble Toward A Post-Election Reversal

AT40 = 9.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #5, 35-month low!)AT200 = 12.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 34-month low)VIX = 28.4 (10-month high, intraday high at 30.3)Short-term Trading Call: bullish (caveats below!) Commentary The plunge continues. AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks … Read more