New CBRT Governor Attempts to Stabilize the Turkish lira

A change in leadership at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) slammed the Turkish lira (USD/TRY). A little over a week later, the new governor, Şahap Kavcıoğlu, granted an interview with Bloomberg to discuss recent events and monetary policy. The CBRT published a transcript of the brief interview. Thus, I assume the … Read more

Erdogan Slams the Turkish Lira With Surprise Change at the Central Bank

Financial markets hate surprises. Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan slammed currency markets to start the week. Two Days after the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) hiked interest rates again (this time from 17 to 19%), Erdogan replaced the governor. The sacking occurred on Saturday, but the market clearly needed a lot more time … Read more

Central Bank of Nigeria Bolsters Cryptocurrency Ban, Enthusiasm Endures

Google Trends for Bitcoin in Nigeria

“…the CBN [ Central Bank of Nigeria ] has no comfort in cryptocurrencies at this time and will continue to do all within its regulatory powers to educate Nigerians to desist from its use and protect our financial system from activities of fraudsters and speculators..” The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), “Response to Regulatory Directive … Read more

The Federal Reserve Pushes Back On Notion Of Fueling A Bubble

“I understand that you do address issues of valuations through macroprudential policies in the first instance. But there’s a range of assets, and I know you do watch a range of assets. But from Bitcoin to corporate bonds to the stock market in general, to some of these morespecific meteoric rises in stocks like GameStop. … Read more

Canadian Dollar: Central Bank Optimism Gives Currency A Fresh Boost

Currency markets were excited for less than an hour over the latest Monetary Policy Report (MPR) from the Bank of Canada. Before the dust settled, USD/CAD, the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. dollar, reached a near 3-year low. Economic optimism from Canada’s central bank gave the Canadian dollar a fresh boost. Bank of Canada Governor … Read more

Forex Critical: The Turkish lira Fever Is Finally Breaking

Three months ago, I worried that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) was moving too late to hike interest rates. The Turkish lira (USD/TRY) is now finally working its way lower from those levels as the Turkish lira fever breaks. The path to today’s near 4-month low was fraught with wild volatility, … Read more

Turkish Central Bank Hiked Policy Rate, But Too Late for the Turkish Lira?

The monthly chart of the U.S. dollar versus Turkish lira (USD/TRY) shows a near relentless and massive devaluation.

The Turkish lira suffered another run of sustained weakness this month. Weakness in the Turkish lira drove USD/TRY to new all-time highs. On Thursday, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) tried yet again to stop the bleeding. The Turkish Central Bank hiked its policy rate an entire 200 basis points from 8.25% … Read more

An Overbought Stock Market Celebrates New Fed Inflation Policy – Above the 40 (August 28, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) is back to overbought (above 70%).

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 71.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 7 overbought trading days)AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 23.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week was not a good time to be sitting on the sidelines … Read more

Canadian Dollar: GDP and COVID-19 Advantage over the U.S. Dollar

The Bank of Canada (BoC) released its latest Monetary Policy Report on July 15, 2020. Neither the report nor the press conference contained any surprises. The BoC did not change interest rates, kept the crank turning on its Quantitative Easing (QE) program, and promised to “hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound … Read more

Australian Dollar: A Fading Pandemic Supports A V-Shaped Recovery

“Other scenarios for the recovery phase can readily be envisaged. Given the relatively rapid decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases in Australia, it is possible to contemplate an upside scenario where most domestic restrictions on activity are relaxed a little sooner and the economy recovers somewhat faster than in the baseline scenario. The greater … Read more