Shake and Bake Does A Bottom Make – Above the 40 (February 28, 2020)

AT40 = 7.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #3, dropped as low as 5.1%)AT200 = 21.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (13-month low, dropped as low as 17.8%)VIX = 40.1 (was as high as 49.5%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Oversold I had … Read more

A Resilient Stock Market Barely Blinks At Fresh Bearish Signals – Above the 40 (January 3, 2020)

The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 0.7% and closed right at the lower boundary of its upper Bollinger Band. The pattern left behind an island reversal.

AT40 = 63.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 60.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market started the new decade with wild swings. After starting the first trading day of the decade with a 0.8% gain … Read more

A Bearish Divergence Now Behind, Overbought Awaits for Stocks – Above the 40 (December 20, 2019)

AT40 (T2108) finally broke out of an extended 2-month trading range and looks ready to challenge the overbought threshold.

AT40 = 65.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 59.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just under high for 2019 of 60.2%)VIX = 12.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The bearish divergence finally ended between a range-bound AT40 (T2108) and an S&P 500 (SPY) steadily … Read more

A Growing Bearish Divergence Has Yet to Spoil Rally In Stock Indices – Above the 40 (November 8, 2019)

AT40 = 57.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 54.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The stock market seems to be on a slow and steady march toward Christmas. The current bearish divergence and an exceptionally low volatility … Read more

The 401K Stock Market Chokes On A Powell and Trade War Sandwich – Above the 40 (August 23, 2019)

AT40 = 28.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (see caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Presidential Decrees “Q    Six hundred and twenty-three points — that’s what the Dow was down today … Read more

A Stock Market Floating Precariously – Above the 40 (May 24, 2019)

AT40 = 34.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 43.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Bearish resistance won the trading battle the previous week. Last week, sellers did their best to follow-through. It was a week of chop … Read more

Bearish Resistance Won the Week Against Major Indices – More Churn Ahead: Above the 40 (May 17, 2019)

AT40 = 42.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 46.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A day after the major indices flipped from bullish support to bearish resistance, buyers rallied these indices through resistance. It was a tenuous … Read more

Above the 40 (April 9, 2019) – Stock Market Fades from the Edge of Overbought

AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.3Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Ever since the last overbought period ended, the stock market has experienced just two clear bearish signals. Each time, the bearishness was well-telegraphed … Read more

Above the 40 (February 27, 2019) – A Lingering Waiting Game As Overbought Period Reaches Important Threshold

AT40 = 80.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (23rd overbought day)AT200 = 45.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary And still the waiting game rolls along. News on the US-China trade front generated some excitement to start the week, … Read more

Above the 40 (January 18, 2019) – Index Breakouts Propel the Stock Market Into Overbought Territory

AT40 = 76.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day overbought)AT200 = 27.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (6-week high)VIX = 17.8Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary I noted in my last post that the signs of exhaustion in the major indices gave way to more … Read more