Green Shoots for A Grinding and Historic Oversold Period – Above the 40 (March 20, 2020)

AT40 = 2.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (18th oversold day)AT200 = 2.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 66.0Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The bear market grinds on. At the time of writing, U.S. stock market futures … Read more

An Oversold Stock Market Full of Extremes Makes Fresh Bid On A Bottom – Above the 40 (March 13, 2019)

AT40 = 3.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (13th oversold day)AT200 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 57.8 (down 23.4%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The stock market experienced another historic day as the bear market takes on more twists and turns. The … Read more

An Ugly Weekly Gain for An Extremely Oversold Stock Market – Above the 40 (March 6, 2020)

AT40 = 9.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (8th oversold day)AT200 = 23.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.9Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The Shake and Bake bottom barely held as support last week. It was a week of dramatic ups and downs … Read more

Being Oversold Is Reason Enough for Buying the Stock Market – Above the 40 (March 4, 2020)

AT40 = 17.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (6th oversold day)AT200 = 32.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 32.0Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Was it a delayed response to the emergency rate cut from the Federal Reserve? Was it the big comeback by … Read more

An Oversold Stock Market Stakes A Claim On A Bottom – Above the 40 (March 2, 2020)

The S&P 500 (SPY) jumped 4.6% and sliced right through 200DMA resistance.

AT40 = 11.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 29.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 33.4Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary On a day of incredible moves, I was most surprised that the stock market gave traders a chance to get in on the … Read more

Shake and Bake Does A Bottom Make – Above the 40 (February 28, 2020)

AT40 = 7.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #3, dropped as low as 5.1%)AT200 = 21.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (13-month low, dropped as low as 17.8%)VIX = 40.1 (was as high as 49.5%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Oversold I had … Read more

An Oversold Stock Market Is A Market Caring About Risk – Above the 40 (February 26, 2020)

AT40 = 18.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #1)AT200 = 36.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 13-month low)VIX = 27.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary Oversold The action in the stock market continues to move fast. On Tuesday, I declared the … Read more

Suddenly Oversold: Stock Market Extremes Continue – Above the 40 (February 25, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) bounced perfectly off the oversold threshold and closed at 21.1%

AT40 = 21.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Synchronized breakdowns below the 50-day moving average (DMA) looked like an extreme day of selling. The follow-up was even more spectacular. … Read more

Synchronized 50DMA Breakdowns for the Stock Market – Above the 40 (February 24, 2020)

AT40 = 34.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 25.0Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Sellers put on another rare performance: major indices across the board broke down below their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs). Following … Read more

Forex Critical: The Euro Slices Through Downside Targets

At the end of last month I made the following claim about the euro in reference to EUR/USD: “The slide will likely take some time, but I fully expect EUR/USD to retest its low around 1.089 from September of last year. The current rebound looks like a technical break from many months of decline. At … Read more