ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
While the month of August was full of sharp trading action which left the S&P 500 (SPY) trapped in a trading range, home builders emerged stronger. The 4.8% August gain for iShares Dow Jones Home Construction ETF (ITB) far out-performed the S&P 500 (SPY) which languished with a 1.8% loss. Ironically, the stock market’s small … Read more
AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Trigger Finger On Tuesday (August 27), I saw enough hints of a flip from a bullish to bearish divergence … Read more
AT40 = 26.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 40.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 22.1Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary When the S&P 500 (SPY) bounced away from the oversold threshold last week, it left behind an extreme … Read more
AT40 = 37.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week almost where it started. In between the bookends, the market gyrated wildly … Read more
AT40 = 30.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.2 (the day before it closed at 24.6 and a 7-month high)Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary Almost Oversold I underestimated the market’s readiness to … Read more
In the background of the growing euphoria in the U.S. over imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the growing weight of the steady descent of the economy in the eurozone. European Weakness The week started with the stock market’s first opportunity to respond to the declared truce in the trade war between the … Read more
AT40 = 23.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (hit a low of 20.7%)AT200 = 36.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2 1/2 month low)VIX = 18.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary So much for the potential for follow-through on bullish divergence! Perhaps the failure is … Read more
AT40 = 61.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 53.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.7Short-term Trading Call: neutral (change from bearish) Stock Market Commentary The week ended with a U.S. GDP report for Q1 2019 that represents well the state of the stock market: … Read more
AT40 = 58.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.1Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the previous week looking ready to lunge for its all-time high. Surprisingly, buyers decided to take a rest, … Read more
AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 14.3Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Ever since the last overbought period ended, the stock market has experienced just two clear bearish signals. Each time, the bearishness was well-telegraphed … Read more