The Fresh Cracks In Housing-Related Stocks

First the good news. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% on Friday but bounced sharply from the lows of the day. That bounce preserved support at the uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA) and set the stage for a potential higher low that generates a lasting bottom. While, the … Read more

Housing Market Review – Promising Start for 2020 Hits Market Pressures (January, 2020)

Housing Market Intro/Summary {Note a rough draft of this post was inadvertently posted on January 20, 2020} When I wrote the Housing Market Review for December, I described a “precarious” divergence between the performance of the iShares US Home Construction (ITB) and the S&P 500 (SPY). In late December, dour commentary from JP Morgan (JPM) about … Read more

A Stock Market Content to Drift Higher No Matter What – Above the 40 (November 22, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) pulled back slightly last week as the stock market’s underlying bearish divergence finally proved too heavy. Yet, the pullback … Read more

Housing Market Review (January, 2019) – A Pause In Deteriorating Data Long Enough to Rally Home Builders

Housing Market Intro/Summary The housing data were late and incomplete at the time of original publishing due to the previous U.S. government shutdown. The last update came with the new home sales data published on March 5, 2019. I look forward to everything getting back in sync! The lagging data have not discouraged investors from … Read more

Book Value Home Builders Belie The Stock Market’s Stellar Q3

The S&P 500 (SPY) printed its best quarter since the fourth quarter of 2013. While the index gained 7.2% for the third quarter of 2018, home builders went in the exact opposite direction. The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) tumbled 7.4% for Q3 and is now down a whopping 20.9% year-to-date. The selling accelerated … Read more

Housing Market Review – Same Strong Data, Different Market Sentiment (November, 2016)

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in September for August, 2016. At that time, iShares US Home Construction (ITB) was at the tail-end of an extended sell-off. I noted the irony of the acceleration of selling in the wake of a new home sales number that was the second-highest of this post-recession period. … Read more

Chart Carnage: Home Builders Under Duress

When I decided to start writing a monthly summary of the status of the housing market, I had assumed that housing was going to remain in or settle into a general holding pattern. I assumed little was going to happen to the upside or the downside for a while. Under those conditions, it did not … Read more

Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider … Read more

Homebuilder Price Performance Diverges in 2013 As Shorts Continue An Uneven Retreat

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 5, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In late November, 2012, I made a list of my homebuilder picks for 2013. I combined valuation, price changes, and short interest to build the list. Almost 6 months later, it … Read more

Picking Homebuilder Stocks for 2013

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} It is hard to be bearish on the U.S. economy when housing is working. Homebuilders are also the ultimate play on the U.S. economy given the minimal (direct) linkage to … Read more