Central Bank Unease: Fed Caps Week of Emergency Actions As Markets Panic

In an earlier post on Sunday, I provided reasons to believe that the market was finally drawing a line in the sand for a sustainable bottom. With anticipation, I pronounced I would go on a shopping spreed down to S&P 500 (SPY) 2600. At the time of writing, it looks like I may have to … Read more

Forex Critical: Waiting on the euro

“…do we need eight pressers per year, because a lot of analysts think, when you see the previews of the analysts, it is often no change, no change, no change for this year. Could be different in the future, but would it be something maybe the strategy will discuss on the frequency of the monetary … Read more

Forex Critical: Economic Fireworks Push Monetary Policy Further Into Retreat

The euro vs the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) reversed its 200DMA breakout, but it still has higher highs and higher lows since the April/May double-bottom.

In the background of the growing euphoria in the U.S. over imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the growing weight of the steady descent of the economy in the eurozone. European Weakness The week started with the stock market’s first opportunity to respond to the declared truce in the trade war between the … Read more

Forex Critical: Dollar Danger

It was one of those trades that works until it doesn’t. Ever since the U.S. dollar index (DXY) broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) back in April, 2018, the index provided a lot of bullish swing trade opportunities. In the early stages of the rally, DXY pivoted around its 20DMA and then its … Read more

Forex Critical: A Speculative Breakout for the Euro

Speculators have not been this bullish on the euro since at least 2008. Source: Oanda’s CFTC’s Commitments of Traders These charts reveal a distinct sentiment shift on the euro this year. Since 2008, speculators spent the majority of the time as firm euro bears. The new high in net long positioning going into 2018 signals … Read more

How Brexit’s Collective Call to Caution Became A Chorus Of Opportunity

The referendum that punted the UK out of the European Union (EU), “Brexit”, is practically a forgotten memory for most people outside of Europe. For example, the aftermath of this vote now looks like an event that quickly shook out the most eager sellers in the stock market and thus paved a course for a … Read more

Draghi Inspires A Parabolic Blow-Off for the Euro

“The second question is on the euro exchange rate. Since the last large package of measures, it’s risen against the dollar and other currencies. How much of a concern is that? I know you don’t target the exchange rate specifically, but it’s an important economic factor. Does it say anything about the ECB’s ability to … Read more

The Draghi Drubbing Redux

Mario Draghi ALMOST got the language of infinite liquidity right this time around… The euro (FXE) approached the European Central Bank’s (ECB) March 10th press conference on monetary policy with high expectations. Even after getting burned in December’s Draghi Drubbing, the currency market “felt” prepared to accept that ECB President Draghi had learned the lessons … Read more

How to Trade the Euro After the “Draghi Drubbing”

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 7, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank (ECB), apparently decided not to follow the now well-established playbook for steering markets nearly perfected by the Federal Reserve: Guide the market to … Read more

Getting Ready to Tip-Toe Around the Euro

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) The European Central Bank (ECB) next makes a statement on monetary policy on December 3, 2015. The market is apparently eagerly anticipating an announcement from ECB President Mario Draghi that delivers … Read more