Central Bank Unease: Fed Caps Week of Emergency Actions As Markets Panic

In an earlier post on Sunday, I provided reasons to believe that the market was finally drawing a line in the sand for a sustainable bottom. With anticipation, I pronounced I would go on a shopping spreed down to S&P 500 (SPY) 2600. At the time of writing, it looks like I may have to … Read more

Forex Critical: The Euro Slices Through Downside Targets

At the end of last month I made the following claim about the euro in reference to EUR/USD: “The slide will likely take some time, but I fully expect EUR/USD to retest its low around 1.089 from September of last year. The current rebound looks like a technical break from many months of decline. At … Read more

Forex Critical: Waiting on the euro

“…do we need eight pressers per year, because a lot of analysts think, when you see the previews of the analysts, it is often no change, no change, no change for this year. Could be different in the future, but would it be something maybe the strategy will discuss on the frequency of the monetary … Read more

The U.S. Dollar Resumes Its Dance With Long-Term Support

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has bounced along its 200DMA support all year long.

With the U.S. dollar index (DXY) last tested its 200-day moving average (DMA) support, I pondered the possibilities for a breakdown. The U.S. dollar index typically sustains moves through its 200DMA, whether a breakout or a breakdown, so I braced myself for the need to jettison my long dollar positions. Instead of follow-through, the U.S. … Read more

Turkish Lira Survives A Rate Cut And Comes Out With Stronger Prospects

The U.S. dollar versus the Turkish lira (USD/TRY) is rapidly heading downward for a test of 200DMA support.

Perhaps President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was right all along? It seems rate cuts are exactly what Turkey needs. As global central banks pedal backward on monetary policy, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) stands out with its extremely high rates. The CBRT got here as part of a fight against persistent and … Read more

Forex Critical: Economic Fireworks Push Monetary Policy Further Into Retreat

The euro vs the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD) reversed its 200DMA breakout, but it still has higher highs and higher lows since the April/May double-bottom.

In the background of the growing euphoria in the U.S. over imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the growing weight of the steady descent of the economy in the eurozone. European Weakness The week started with the stock market’s first opportunity to respond to the declared truce in the trade war between the … Read more

Forex Critical: Dollar Danger

It was one of those trades that works until it doesn’t. Ever since the U.S. dollar index (DXY) broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) back in April, 2018, the index provided a lot of bullish swing trade opportunities. In the early stages of the rally, DXY pivoted around its 20DMA and then its … Read more

Forex Critical: The “Safety Trade” Drives the Swiss Franc Near A 2-Year Milestone

While the volatility index (VIX) is only reluctantly responding to the latest turmoil in financial markets, other safety trades are moving in full steam. The “safety trade” I left out of my last post covering the stock market was the Swiss franc (FXF). At the time of writing the Swiss franc fell to a near … Read more

Above the 40 (March 22, 2019) – Tension Headache: Dovish Fed Fails to Keep Market Complacent to Risks

AT40 = 45.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (2+ month low)AT200 = 38.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.5 (20.9% gain)Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Friday’s trading action provided delayed confirmation of my short-term bearish trading call. The week previous to the last, … Read more

Above the 40 (November 12, 2018) – First the Brakes, Now the Body Blow: Technical Damage Spreads

AT40 = 35.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 31.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 20.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary via GIPHY The bears took back complete control of the market. Friday, they sent up the warning signal with the screeching of … Read more