From the Ashes of A Crash, Key Divergences in Housing-Related Stocks

This week’s market crash and subsequent sharp rebound revealed some key divergences among housing-related stocks. While one more home builder made it to my “do not touch” list, I see even more opportunities. Opportunities iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) To start the week, the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction … Read more

LGI Homes Revives Home Builders With Strong Closings Report

LGI Homes (LGIH) looks like it finally bottomed out of a post-earnings pullback and consolidation near and around 200DMA support.

During its earnings call, LGI Homes (LGIH) projected strong performance ahead. The company’s December home closings report delivered. LGI Homes closed 748 homes last month. The 49.6% year-over-year growth contributed to an 18.0% year-over-year overall growth rate in home closings for the first eleven months of 2019. The stock market responded positively by sending LGIH … Read more

A Stock Market Content to Drift Higher No Matter What – Above the 40 (November 22, 2019)

AT40 = 53.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) pulled back slightly last week as the stock market’s underlying bearish divergence finally proved too heavy. Yet, the pullback … Read more

Part Optimism, Part Skepticism from A Partial Trade Deal – Above the 40 (October 11, 2019)

AT40 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Re-Entry Two Fridays ago, buyers took the S&P 500 (SPY) back above its 50-day moving average (DMA). It was yet … Read more

Housing Market Review (December, 2017) – Seasonal Strength Launches With A Flurry of Activity

The last Housing Market Review covered data reported in November, 2017 for October, 2017. At the time, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) traded at a 10+ year high with the angst of tax reform left far behind in the rear view mirror. The day after my post, Toll Brothers (TOL) reported earnings that … Read more

Chart Carnage: Home Builders Under Duress

When I decided to start writing a monthly summary of the status of the housing market, I had assumed that housing was going to remain in or settle into a general holding pattern. I assumed little was going to happen to the upside or the downside for a while. Under those conditions, it did not … Read more

Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider … Read more

Homebuilder Price Performance Diverges in 2013 As Shorts Continue An Uneven Retreat

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 5, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In late November, 2012, I made a list of my homebuilder picks for 2013. I combined valuation, price changes, and short interest to build the list. Almost 6 months later, it … Read more

Picking Homebuilder Stocks for 2013

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 26, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} It is hard to be bearish on the U.S. economy when housing is working. Homebuilders are also the ultimate play on the U.S. economy given the minimal (direct) linkage to … Read more

What To Do with Your Homebuilder Stocks Now

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 28, 2012. Click here to read the entire piece.) Congratulations to those of you who were able to ignore the bears on housing and stick with housing stocks this year. The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has finally recovered all … Read more