A Path Higher for the U.S. Dollar: A Shrinking Trade Deficit

It is increasingly clear that President Trump and his administration will relentlessly pursue a goal of balanced trade with the rest of the world. Trump sees negative trade balances as an absolute bad, and his fiery political rhetoric highlights that positioning. If my interpretation is correct, then I want to stay net long the U.S. … Read more

Australian Dollar Poised for A Bounce After Holiday Trading Overreacts to Economic Data

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 6, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) On Wednesday, July 1, 2015 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released international trade data for May which suggested that April’s big plunge may have been quite an aberration. On a … Read more

A Mysterious Omission By the Reserve Bank of Australia Lifts the Australian Dollar

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 4, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) issued its monetary policy decision for August. The RBA left rates unchanged just as the market expected. The rest of the statement was boilerplate … Read more

More Rate Cut Pressure As Australian Dollar’s Multi-Year Weakness Fails to Curb Trade Deficit

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 2, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) A drop in the Australian dollar (FXA) toward a fresh six-year low has not stopped Australia’s trade balance from worsening. {snip} Source: The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Source for currency … Read more

Plunge In Australia’s Trade Balance Could Mean Weaker Dollar Ahead

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I was just getting accustomed to the idea that iron ore prices could plunge without impacting the Australian dollar (FXA). Now comes a surprisingly large plunge in Australia’s trade balance. On … Read more