Part Optimism, Part Skepticism from A Partial Trade Deal – Above the 40 (October 11, 2019)

AT40 = 52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary A Broad-Based Re-Entry Two Fridays ago, buyers took the S&P 500 (SPY) back above its 50-day moving average (DMA). It was yet … Read more

One-Third of the Way to An Average October Drawdown – Above the 40 (October 1, 2019)

AT40 = 51.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 48.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 18.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary The Big Question: Another Q4 Sell-Off? “Last year can’t happen because of last year” Tim Seymour, CNBC’s Fast Money, October 1, 2019 … Read more

An Obvious Stock Market Breakout Leaves Open Questions – Above the 40 (September 6, 2019)

AT40 = 49.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 48.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 15.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary One Obvious Pattern to Another The S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ (COMPQX) transitioned from an obvious trading range to an obvious … Read more

A Stock Market Stuck In An Obvious Trading Range Still Produces A Rich Set of Expectations – Above the 40 (August 29, 2019)

AT40 = 38.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary The Trigger Finger On Tuesday (August 27), I saw enough hints of a flip from a bullish to bearish divergence … Read more

The 401K Stock Market Chokes On A Powell and Trade War Sandwich – Above the 40 (August 23, 2019)

AT40 = 28.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 19.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish (see caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Presidential Decrees “Q    Six hundred and twenty-three points — that’s what the Dow was down today … Read more

A Manic Stock Market Leaves Behind An Extreme August Drawdown – Above the 40 (August 9, 2019)

Much ado about nothing? The 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) shows the gory details of a manic swoon to a near flat close for the week.

AT40 = 37.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 18.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below!) Stock Market Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) ended the week almost where it started. In between the bookends, the market gyrated wildly … Read more

Fed Waffling and Trade War Expansion Reject Market from Overbought – Above the 40 (August 1, 2019)

The S&P 500 (SPY) lost 3.1% for the week. Buyers just barely pushed the index off its intraday low to on Friday to close above 50DMA support.

AT40 = 41.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 17.6 (high of 20.1)Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A Pause of Recognition I am writing about financial markets at a time when there is renewed pain … Read more

Overbought Conditions Remain Elusive As Market Wavers Ahead of the Fed – Above the 40 (July 19, 2019)

AT40 = 58.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = ~52.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.5Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary A week ago, the S&P 500 (SPY) made a new all-time, and I was expecting a trip into overbought conditions. AT40 … Read more

Rate Cut Promises Rescued A Stock Market Near Oversold – Above the 40 (June 7, 2019)

AT40 = 38.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 18.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary From opening at the edge of oversold trading conditions to closing on near panic buying, last week was a wild week! … Read more

Above the 40 (May 15, 2019) – Stock Market Flips from Bullish Support to Bearish Resistance As Signals Compete

AT40 = 43.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 47.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 16.4Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Over the weekend, I wrote about a “constructive stock market” as a reference to the stock market’s consistently positive responses to U.S. vs … Read more