Warning Signs, Promising Signs in the Stock Market – Above the 40 (June 11, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 69.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ending 16 days overbought)AT200 = 20.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 40.8 (up 48.0%)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary It was fun while it lasted. The Federal Reserve delivered its latest … Read more

Panic Buying, Catch-Up Trades Further Extend Overbought Stock Market – Above the 40 (June 5, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 90.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (overbought 13 of last 14 trading days)AT200 = 37.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (highest since February 26, 2020)VIX = 24.5Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The on-going recovery in the stock market … Read more

Stock Market Rebounds Deeply Into Overbought Trading Conditions – Above the 40 (May 8, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 82.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (overbought day #2)AT200 = 16.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 28.0Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Winners and losers are becoming more and more distinct in the stock market. While skeptics and bears … Read more

A $2.3 Trillion End to An Extreme Oversold Period in the Stock Market – Above the 40 (April 10, 2020)

AT40 = 24.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 31-day oversold period)AT200 = 10.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 41.7Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary “The Federal Reserve on Thursday took additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support … Read more

Green Shoots Begin Breaking Through Key Stock Downtrends – Above the 40 (March 24, 2020)

AT40 = 2.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (20th oversold day)AT200 = 3.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 61.7Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The week did not start as I feared with a 5th circuit breaker shut-down … Read more

Green Shoots for A Grinding and Historic Oversold Period – Above the 40 (March 20, 2020)

AT40 = 2.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (18th oversold day)AT200 = 2.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 66.0Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The bear market grinds on. At the time of writing, U.S. stock market futures … Read more

The Day the Stock Market Lost Apple

Apple (AAPL) lost 12.9% and broke its 200DMA for the first time during the market collapse.

“Looking for one of the 4% of stocks still trading above their respective 200DMAs? Apple (AAPL) is one of those lucky few. If sellers break AAPL, I foresee two binary possibilities: 1) buyers will finally see enough bargains to go on a buying spree, or 2) buyers give up all hope and the resulting rush … Read more

An Oversold Stock Market Full of Extremes Makes Fresh Bid On A Bottom – Above the 40 (March 13, 2019)

AT40 = 3.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (13th oversold day)AT200 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 57.8 (down 23.4%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The stock market experienced another historic day as the bear market takes on more twists and turns. The … Read more

Historic Oversold Conditions Stretch Into A Bear Market – Above the 40 (March 12, 2020)

AT40 = 1.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (12th oversold day)AT200 = 4.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 75.5 (just short of financial crisis all-time high of 90)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary When I said a persistently elevated volatility index (VIX) warned us … Read more

Second Derivative Selling Produces A Stock Market Crash – Above the 40 (March 9, 2020)

AT40 = 4.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (9th oversold day)AT200 = 11.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 54.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The Shake and Bake bottom completely collapsed on Monday in the face of massive second derivative selling. The stock market … Read more