Green Shoots Begin Breaking Through Key Stock Downtrends – Above the 40 (March 24, 2020)

AT40 = 2.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (20th oversold day)AT200 = 3.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 61.7Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The week did not start as I feared with a 5th circuit breaker shut-down … Read more

Green Shoots for A Grinding and Historic Oversold Period – Above the 40 (March 20, 2020)

AT40 = 2.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (18th oversold day)AT200 = 2.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new low for the oversold period)VIX = 66.0Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The bear market grinds on. At the time of writing, U.S. stock market futures … Read more

The Day the Stock Market Lost Apple

Apple (AAPL) lost 12.9% and broke its 200DMA for the first time during the market collapse.

“Looking for one of the 4% of stocks still trading above their respective 200DMAs? Apple (AAPL) is one of those lucky few. If sellers break AAPL, I foresee two binary possibilities: 1) buyers will finally see enough bargains to go on a buying spree, or 2) buyers give up all hope and the resulting rush … Read more

An Oversold Stock Market Full of Extremes Makes Fresh Bid On A Bottom – Above the 40 (March 13, 2019)

AT40 = 3.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (13th oversold day)AT200 = 6.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 57.8 (down 23.4%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The stock market experienced another historic day as the bear market takes on more twists and turns. The … Read more

Historic Oversold Conditions Stretch Into A Bear Market – Above the 40 (March 12, 2020)

AT40 = 1.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (12th oversold day)AT200 = 4.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 75.5 (just short of financial crisis all-time high of 90)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary When I said a persistently elevated volatility index (VIX) warned us … Read more

Second Derivative Selling Produces A Stock Market Crash – Above the 40 (March 9, 2020)

AT40 = 4.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (9th oversold day)AT200 = 11.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 54.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary The Shake and Bake bottom completely collapsed on Monday in the face of massive second derivative selling. The stock market … Read more

Shake and Bake Does A Bottom Make – Above the 40 (February 28, 2020)

AT40 = 7.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #3, dropped as low as 5.1%)AT200 = 21.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (13-month low, dropped as low as 17.8%)VIX = 40.1 (was as high as 49.5%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Oversold I had … Read more

Second Derivative Selling Reverses More Stock Market Breakouts – Above the 40 (February 27, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) plunged from 18.5% to 9.4% to become deeply oversold.

AT40 = 9.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #2)AT200 = 26.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (near 13-month low)VIX = 39.2 (up 42.1%)Short-term Trading Call: bullish Stock Market Commentary Oversold The stock market is only into its second oversold day, but the technical extreme … Read more

Suddenly Oversold: Stock Market Extremes Continue – Above the 40 (February 25, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) bounced perfectly off the oversold threshold and closed at 21.1%

AT40 = 21.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Synchronized breakdowns below the 50-day moving average (DMA) looked like an extreme day of selling. The follow-up was even more spectacular. … Read more

Synchronized 50DMA Breakdowns for the Stock Market – Above the 40 (February 24, 2020)

AT40 = 34.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 25.0Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Sellers put on another rare performance: major indices across the board broke down below their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs). Following … Read more