Above the 40 (December 17, 2018) – A Deeply Oversold Market No Longer Expects Rate Hikes in 2019

AT40 = 10.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (oversold day #2)AT200 = 15.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 34-month low)VIX = 24.5Short-term Trading Call: bullish (caveats below!) CommentaryThe week started as I expected based on the technical setup on Friday that I discussed in the … Read more

Above the 40 (December 14, 2018) – A Bear-Burdened Stock Market Dropped to Oversold and Passed A Trade-Positive Tweet

AT40 = 19.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (1st day oversold)AT200 = 20.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (34-month low)VIX = 21.6Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryThe stock market is oversold again as a bearish divergence to start the week came to its “logical conclusion.” AT40 (T2108), … Read more

Above the 40 (December 10, 2018) – A Bearish Divergence Clouds Encouraging Bounce Away from Oversold

AT40 = 23.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (low of 18.9%)AT200 = 22.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (new 32-month low)VIX = 22.6 (as high as 25.9)Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish CommentaryIt was a wild day in the stock market, but the market still avoided closing … Read more

Above the 40 (November 2, 2018) – The Bounce from Oversold Survives An Early Test

AT40 = 22.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ends an 11-day oversold period that followed a 4-day oversold period AT200 = 31.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.5 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary If you are a long-term passive index investor, you can … Read more

Above the 40 (November 1, 2018) – An Extended Oversold Period Ends with Important Footnotes

AT40 = 21.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – ends an 11-day oversold period that followed a 4-day oversold period AT200 = 32.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 19.3 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective … Read more

Above the 40 (October 31, 2018) – Small Bearish Divergence Extends Oversold Period Despite Rallies

AT40 = 16.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (as high as 19.95%) – 11th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period AT200 = 29.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 21.2 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The push out of oversold conditions did not … Read more

Above the 40 (October 30, 2018) – A Bullish Divergence Transforms to A Near End to Oversold Conditions

AT40 = 17.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 10th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period AT200 = 29.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 23.4 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary The small bullish divergence to start the week received follow-through in the … Read more

Above the 40 (October 26, 2018) – Yo-Yo Trading Action Takes the S&P 500 Closer to Declining 200DMA Signal

AT40 = 9.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – (as low as 7.6%) 8th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period AT200 = 25.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (as low as 22.5%) VIX = 24.2 (as high as 27.5) Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary … Read more

Above the 40 (October 25, 2018) – Breadth Responds Poorly to Latest 1-Day Oversold Rally

{editing note 10/28/18 – this is a restored version of this post after I accidentally over-wrote it in preparing for the next edition of Above the 40} AT40 = 12.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 7th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period (as low as 10.3%) … Read more

Above the 40 (October 24, 2018) – The Second Derivative Is Here for the Stock Market (New Oversold Extremes)

AT40 = 11.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) – 6th day of oversold period following 4-day oversold period (as low as 10.6%) AT200 = 25.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (as low as 26.7%) VIX = 25.2 Short-term Trading Call: bullish Commentary Time to take a … Read more