ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
The bear market intrusion to the oversold period gave way to an explosion of bullish trading action this week. The maximum drawdown of October for the S&P 500 (SPY) was 4.0% well above the average for the month. This extreme move provided the perfect setup for the sharpness of the current oversold bounce. The rubber … Read more
Stock Market Commentary The economist “consensus” expectations for September job growth missed the mark by a mile, 336,000 actual versus 170,000 projected. These big misses represent the on-going struggles of conventional economics to understand the dynamics of today’s post-pandemic economy. Initially, the good jobs news frightened financial markets which think of good news as bad … Read more
ChatGPT Speaks I continue to find interesting and valuable ways to use ChatGPT. After listening to a segment on CNBC’s Fast Money that wrangled over the risks in commercial real estate, I decided to ask ChatGPT a topical question: “What publicly traded commercial real estate REITs struggled the most during the great financial crisis?” I … Read more
Stock Market Commentary: Unlike the prior week, last week was all about the fundamentals, and the fundamentals made a huge difference. After failing to break through picture-perfect resistance levels, especially the 20-day moving averages (DMAs) (the dotted lines in the charts below), the indices were left vulnerable to selling pressure. The pressure started with Federal … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary In my last Housing Market Review, I described a housing market that shows signs of stabilization. That stabilization continues despite a strong rebound in mortgage rates. Mortgage rates now look like a renewed risk to the housing market. However, the uptrend in most of the stocks of home builders are … Read more