An Overbought Stock Market Celebrates New Fed Inflation Policy – Above the 40 (August 28, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) is back to overbought (above 70%).

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 71.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (ended 7 overbought trading days)AT200 = 46.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 23.0Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bearish Stock Market Commentary Last week was not a good time to be sitting on the sidelines … Read more

Hard Lessons Of Parabolic Price Action: When Bonds Became Unsafe

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) almost finished reversing all of its parabolic move with a 2.3% loss.

“…note that the bond market went parabolic last week; iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) soared 5.2% alone on Friday. Parabolic run-ups are built NOT to last. The ironic next move will be for bond yields to soar on inflationary expectations from super-easy monetary policies and super-stimulative, turbo boosted fiscal policies with debts … Read more

The Race to Zero Interest Rate Policies (ZIRPs) Intensifies

The race to zero interest rate policies (ZIRPs) is reaching a climax. Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia On March 3, 2020, The Reserve Bank of Australia dropped its key interest rate 25 basis points (bps) from 0.75% to 0.5%, an all-time low for Australia. In doing so the RBA proclaimed the following in its statement: … Read more

Home Builders Withdraw As the Stock Market Celebrates

Since November, the performance of the iShares US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) has lagged that of the S&P 500 (SPY)

The seasonally strong period for home builders begins in November. For this period, home builders tend to outperform the S&P 500 (SPY) which is also in its own period of seasonal strength. So far, home builders have lagged significantly in what I continue to call the moment of truth for home builders. Since November, the … Read more

A Major Test Awaits the Australian Dollar In 2014 As 2013 Delivered New Correlations

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 23, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Australian dollar (FXA) has finally retested the “W-bottom” from August of this year. So far the test seems successful as the Australian dollar has sharply bounced off the lows over … Read more

T2108 Update (September 24, 2013) – Fed Fade Complete as Markets Prepare to Meander(?)

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more

Market Trends Continue To Swirl Inconsistently Around Rising Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 19, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The mixed signals from financial markets continue as interest rates continue to climb. In fact, the steady rise in rates is the main feature within a swirl of inconsistent patterns. The … Read more

Mixed Signals Surround the Steady Creep Higher In Interest Rates

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 7, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tuesday’s trading (August 6, 2013) brought out the taper tantrum jitters again. Officials from the Federal Reserve are once again reminding financial markets about the potential for September to bring the … Read more

T2108 Update (July 23, 2013) – Market Almost Overbought; A Quick Review of the Apple Earnings Play

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more

T2108 Update (July 5, 2013) – S&P 500 Finally Makes A Breakthrough

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more