Tesla: Favorable Options Pricing for Speculating on January Earnings

Tesla (TSLA) took a (now) rare 3-day rest to end the week. Since breaking out to an all-time high, TSLA has sped upward through its upper Bollinger Band (BB).

Tesla (TSLA) has been on a tear. Analyst Expectations Analysts have stumbled over themselves to hike price targets: Canaccord Genuity from $375 to $515, Piper Sandler from $423 to $553, Oppenheimer from $385 to $612, and Jeffries from $400 to $600. At least three analysts have staunchly defended their bearishness: Credit Suisse reluctantly hiked its … Read more

Tesla: New Trading Strategies for A Fresh Breakdown and New Price Range

The monthly chart of Tesla (TSLA) suggests the stock has entered a lower trading range. If this range fails, there are likely two more lines of firm support before the stock hits an air pocket that would threaten all the steep gains from 2013.

The Short-Term Breakdown The technical conditions for Tesla (TSLA) have greatly deteriorated since I wrote about short-term and long-term trading strategies on the stock. I focused on two main trading strategies: 1) a longer-term covered call strategy for bullish investors fortunate enough to own 100+ shares of stock and 2) what I considered at the … Read more

In Search of the Next Apple Pre-Earnings Trade

It was just this past weekend when I laid out my latest strategy trading Apple (AAPL) pre-earnings including updated historical data. Much to my surprise, my calendar call spread closed out at its pre-earnings profit target as AAPL followed through on Tuesday from Monday’s big 2.3% rebound. (As a reminder, my ideal scenario featured the … Read more

Above the 40 (August 27, 2018) – Parabolic Moves Highlight FOMO Warm-Up Time

AT40 = 62.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 12.2 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Money managers may desperately want to wait until after Labor Day to put idle cash to work, but the stock market may … Read more

Periods of Extremely Low Volatility Remain Bullish – Now With Fresh Footnotes

The volatility index, the VIX, closed below 11 on April 24, 2017. That launched 184 trading days of extremely low volatility (ELV). The VIX is now just 1 more trading day away from finally bringing this historic event to an end. By my definition, it takes 20 trading days of the VIX closing above 11 … Read more

Above the 40 (February 7, 2018) – Buyers Fail First Post-Oversold Test

AT40 = 24.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 47.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.7 (range from 21.2 to 31.6) Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Buyers failed their first post-oversold test. The S&P 500 (SPY) rallied just enough to peak over resistance … Read more

Above the 40 (July 18, 2017) – A Food-Borne Breakdown and Classic Post-Earnings Gaps

AT40 = 61.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 59.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 9.9 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary The S&P 500 (SPY) closed effectively flatline with a point and a half gain. The NASDAQ returned to the … Read more

Above the 40 (June 23, 2017) – The S&P 500 Watches the NASDAQ Position for A Recovery

AT40 = 54.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 56.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 10.0 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Commentary Last week, the NASDAQ snatched the baton from the S&P 500 (SPY) and now looks poised to resume its … Read more

T2108 Update (October 19, 2016) – The S&P 500 Bounces Weakly from Near-Oversold

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more