ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
My wait for an entry point to buy Lennar (LEN) continues. On a day with multiple warning signs about the U.S. economy from companies like Csx Corp (CSX), the Census Bureau piled on with lukewarm data on housing starts. While single-family housing starts for June increased month-over-month by 3.5% to 847,000, housing starts decreased on … Read more
“It would be a difficult place for policy, and my sense is that the markets are not really onto the complexity of it. It seems a little too easy that ‘Oh. Interest rates could decline and that will make everything OK.’ That may be true for the small kind of shocks that we’ve had so … Read more
AT40 = 68.0% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 55.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (essentially matches the 2019 high and is a new 10-month high)VIX = 13.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral (caveats below) Stock Market Commentary Good news is bad news….oops, nevermind The search for … Read more
In the background of the growing euphoria in the U.S. over imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve is the growing weight of the steady descent of the economy in the eurozone. European Weakness The week started with the stock market’s first opportunity to respond to the declared truce in the trade war between the … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary After writing the last Housing Market Review, I was convinced a triple top had appeared in the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB). The May sell-off in the stock market pushed ITB into a breakdown below its 50-day moving average (DMA). Immediately after that post, ITB rebounded right through its 50DMA and … Read more
In recent days, market pundits have excitedly talked about the prospects of the Federal Reserve getting so dovish that it would be willing to make a bold statement with a rate cut of 50 basis points for the July 31st announcement on monetary policy. Such a move would be quite dramatic given the Fed has … Read more
The S&P 500 (SPY) traded at an all-time high last week. This milestone means that the broad-based index never closed above that level, 2954.20, before that time. Specifically, “all-time” is an adjective with two meanings according to Dictionary.com: “never surpassed or greater” “regarded as such in its entire history” Despite the clarity of this definition, … Read more
It was one of those trades that works until it doesn’t. Ever since the U.S. dollar index (DXY) broke out above its 200-day moving average (DMA) back in April, 2018, the index provided a lot of bullish swing trade opportunities. In the early stages of the rally, DXY pivoted around its 20DMA and then its … Read more
AT40 = 38.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 44.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 18.9Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary From opening at the edge of oversold trading conditions to closing on near panic buying, last week was a wild week! … Read more
Housing Market Intro/Summary In several posts on the housing market, I made the case for a top in the stocks of home builders and pointed out the parallel weaknesses in the housing data. Last week, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) appeared to confirm what looks like a triple top in the index. Not … Read more