ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets
Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.
Housing Market Intro and Summary The housing market again seemed to tell a tale of divergent markets between new and existing homes. While new home sales and starts fared well, a large setback in builder sentiment sets the stage for setbacks in April’s new home sales. Existing home sales completely erased the wistful optimism from … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary Stock Market Commentary Last week was bullish, and yet the bearish signal that bothered me early in the year returned. Market breadth flashed bearish even as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ broke out to all-time highs. This bearish divergence is exactly the setup I did not want to see. The … Read more
The Market Breadth Summary Small cap stocks led a market breadth breakout, then faded just short of overbought, leaving me encouraged by momentum but wary of a near-term pullback. The S&P 500 ground to fresh highs, while the NASDAQ lagged by stalling at prior peaks. A clean breakout still awaits for the NASDAQ. CES-driven leadership … Read more
The bearish to bullish reversal ended for home builder stocks with a return to bear market territory. Today, October 9, 2025, the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) dropped under the threshold that defines a bear market: 20% below the all-time high (see chart below). The 2.6% slide on the day is part of a … Read more
Housing Market Intro and Summary What happened in the housing market for July, 2025? The housing data looked as bad as ever, but the stock market has finally responded favorably to the stocks of home builders. This forward-looking display of “green shoots” forms the basis of a “bearish to bullish reversal.” The catalyst for this … Read more