Stock Market Support Melts Away, Delays Launch to Higher Prices – Above the 40 (October 26, 2020)

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 46.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 51.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (8-month high) VIX = 32.5 Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish Stock Market Commentary The stock market looked like it was warming up from a period of cooling … Read more

Housing Downturn: Optimism Races Ahead of the Data – Housing Market Review (April, 2020)

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (ITB) gained 4.2% and closed at a 2-month high.

Housing Market Intro and Summary Something surprising is happening in the middle of the current downturn in the housing market: buyers keep coming and home builders are staying resilient and resolute. A series of earnings reports from publicly traded home builders do not reflect the historic plunge in builder sentiment from April (see below). The … Read more

Stock Market Launches Deeply Into Overbought Trading Conditions – Above the 40 (April 29, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) soared to 82.6% and started overbought conditions at extreme levels.

Stock Market Statistics AT40 = 82.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) (first oversold day)AT200 = 17.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 31.2Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary On Tuesday, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), rallied … Read more

Animal Spirits in Housing Stocks Trampled by Virus Panic – Housing Market Review (February, 2020)

The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) dropped 13.4% in a week but managed to bounce off its 200DMA support.

Housing Market Intro/Summary The short-term outlook for the housing market is clouded by the current global turmoil generated by the coronavirus. The housing data discussed below were all collected before the virus came to the forefront of the minds of Americans. While demand for housing in the U.S. should remain strong (and certainly times like … Read more

Suddenly Oversold: Stock Market Extremes Continue – Above the 40 (February 25, 2020)

AT40 (T2108) bounced perfectly off the oversold threshold and closed at 21.1%

AT40 = 21.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 27.9Short-term Trading Call: neutral Stock Market Commentary Synchronized breakdowns below the 50-day moving average (DMA) looked like an extreme day of selling. The follow-up was even more spectacular. … Read more